Pick Details

WAS
at
NYG
(259) Washington vs. N.Y. Giants (260) 1:00 PM | Sun, Oct 18 2020
Sport: NFL | Star Rating: 10.0 Evaluation: Loss (-1160) - Final Total 39
Pick
Over 42.5 (-116) @ pinnacle

My 9* "Featured" Sunday Total is on Was/NYG Over at 1:00 ET.

The 0-5 New York Giants are one of just THREE remaining winless NFL teams as the 2020 season moves into Week 6. The other two are the New York Jets (the Giants co-tenants of MetLife Stadium) and the Atlanta Falcons, who fired coach Dan Quinn at the beginning of the week. While 0-5 is 0-5, it should be noted that while the Falcons and Jets are a combined 1-9 ATS, the Giants have gone 3-2. Three of the Giants' losses have come by single digits, including a 37-34 road setback last week in Dallas against the Cowboys. First-year head coach Joe Judge said he is encouraged by his team's progress. "That's all that really matters, to be honest with you, the progress that we're making right now," Judge said after his team's latest loss. "The record will come in time. Obviously, we're not happy about the losses, that's not what we do here. But I've seen a lot of progress on all fronts and all units. We have to keep making consistent progress to keep being a better team as the year goes."

It's fair to say it's "put up or shut up" time for the Giants this Sunday, as 1-4 Washington visits East Rutherford, NJ. Washington fell behind the Eagles 17-0 at home in Week 1 but rallied to score the game's final 27 points in a 27-17 win over the defending NFC East champs. However, very little has gone right for the team since then, as Washington has lost FOUR in a row (0-3-1 ATS) since that Week 1 victory, allowing at each 30 points in each contest (average of 31.3 PPG). Washington has seen enough of QB Dwayne Haskins (61.0% for 939 yards with 4 TDs and 3 INTS for a QB rating of 80.3), replacing him in favor of backup Kyle Allen in last Sunday's 30-10 loss to the Raiders. Allen completed 9 of 13 passes for 74 yards and rushed for a TD before he was injured on a scramble, which created an opportunity for Alex Smith to take the field for the first time since his gruesome leg injury in 2018. However, Washington is expected to turn back to Allen against the Giants after he reportedly was cleared by doctors to return. This would be his 15th career start, including 13 with the Carolina Panthers over the previous two seasons (he's 6-8 as an NFL starter). Allen can't expect much help from a running game that averages just 101.8 YPG on 3.5 YPC but RBs McKissic (17 catches) and Gibson (145 catches) have both done a nice job as receivers. Washington's lone WR of note is second-year player McLaurin, who has 29 catches, averaging 15.8 YPC.

With Barkley out for the season, the Giants know all about the lack of a running game, as New York ranks dead-last in the NFL by averaging a pathetic 79.0 YPG on the ground (3.8 YPC). The Giants are sticking with second-year QB Daniel Jones, who showed flashes of potential in 2019. He ended the season having completed 61.9% for 3,027 yards with 24 TDs and just 12 INTs. He's completing 61.0% this year for 1,111 yards (that's on pace for 3,5000 yards on the season) but he has just two TD passes and five INTs. QB rating of 70.6 is down from his rookie season, when he posted an 87.7 rating. Second-year WR Slayton has 23 catches (15.9 YPC / 2 TDs) and TE Engram has 18 catches. A huge disappointment so far is Golden Tate, who has a modest 18 catches plus is averaging only 8.1 YPC (Tate had 90-plus catches with Seattle for four straight seasons (2014-17).

The Giants are third-to-last in the league in averaging only 282.4 YPG, while Washington is dead last with 263.0 YPG. So why go over? Neither team can run the ball and I expect both QBs to have solid games, maybe even their best games this season to-date. As has been widely reported, scoring has never been higher (since the 1970 merger) and linemakers have adjusted the over/under numbers up. However, as of Friday at 12 noon ET, this game has the lowest posted total of any Week 6 game. The Giants should 'smell' the chance for a "W" and I won't be even a little surprised if they are the FIFTH straight team to score 30-plus points on Washington, meaning we won't need too much help from Washington for this game to go over. That's the bet.

Good luck...Larry

 

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