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Pick Details

MIA
at
ATL
(911) Miami vs. Atlanta (912) 7:20 PM | Wed, Apr 14 2021
Sport: MLB | Star Rating: 10.0 Evaluation: Loss (-1080) - Final Score MIA 6 at ATL 5
Pick
-1.5 ATL (-108) @ pinnacle

My 10* Run-Line Rout (NL East) is on the Atl Braves at 7:20 ET.

The Miami Marlins entered last year's COVID-shortened season having posted the NL's worst record in both 2019 (57-105) and 2018 (63-98). The Marlins suffered a significant COVID break after the team's opening series and did not play from July 27 through Aug 4. However, the Marlins not only made up all of its missed games but at 31-29, made the expanded playoffs. Meanwhile, the Braves won the NL East in 2020 (35-25), giving them THREE straight division titles. Atlanta then took a 3-1 lead over the Dodgers in the NLCS, before LA rebounded to win the series in seven games.

Miami opened the current season 2-6 but has won the first two contests of this four-game series in Atlanta, after pounding out 17 hits in a 14-8 win last night. Adam Duvall drove in seven runs against his former Atlanta teammates with four hits, including two HRs. He tied a Marlins record, becoming the sixth player to drive in seven runs. Atlanta opened the season 0-4 but then won four in a row. However, after losing 7-6 at home to Philly last Sunday night, the Braves enter this contest on a three-game slide.

Nick Neidert gets the ball for Miami in Wednesday's game, opposed by Atlanta's Charlie Morton. Neidert made just four relief appearances in 2020 (his first in the majors), pitching a total of only 8.1 innings with a 5.40 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and an opponent's BA of .313. His first appearance of 2020 was a start at the Mets (Apr 8) in which he allowed just one EWR in 4.1 innings (no-decision in a 3-2 Miami win). The Braves signed Morton to a one-year contract and hope that Morton can deliver like he did for Houston (14-7 and 15-3 in 2017 and 2018) and for Tampa Bay, when he went 16-6 in 2019. Morton was just 2-2 in nine starts in 2020 but he then led the Rays to wins in his first three playoff starts, allowing just one ER over 15.2 IP (0.57 ERA), before losing Game 3 of the World Series. He was out-pitched by Wheeler (seven scoreless innings with one hit allowed a 10-0 KW ratio) in a 4-0 Philly win back on April 3 but he rebounded on April 9 in an 8-1 win over Philly and Wheeler (6 IP / 4 hits / 1 ER).

Hard to make much of case for Neidert (just his second career start), while the veteran Morton faces a Miami lineup coming off a 17-hit, 14-4un outburst on Tuesday. Morton has made 13 career starts vs Miami, going 7-4 with a 3.77 ERA (teams are 8-5). Also note that even after back-to-back wins, the Marlins are just 6-21 in the last 27 meetings in Atlanta. Lay the 1 1/2 runs.

Good luck...Larry

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