|Juve (-125) @ pinnacle|
10* Juventus (2:45 ET): The Scudetto has already been decided (congrats to Inter Milan), but the three remaining Champions League spots in Serie A are still to be determined. Here, we’ve got a battle of top five teams in the table on Sunday as Juventus hosts AC Milan. While Juve’s nine-year run as Serie A champs has officially come to end, they are actually #1 in expected points this campaign, slightly ahead of Inter. The importance of this match really can’t be understated as one point currently separates second from fifth in the Serie A table. I like Juve to get the full three today.
While both of these sides come in with the same number of actual points (69), expected points tell a different story. I already mentioned that Juve is #1 in all of Serie A in expected points (w/ 72) and there’s a decided gap between them and Milan (59). I’d say Inter, Juve and Atalanta are clearly the three best teams in the league and likely to finish 1-2-3. The race for the fourth spot should come down to Milan and Napoli, who won for me yesterday (4-1) over Spezia.
The reverse fixture back in January was won by Juve, 3-1, in San Siro. The former nine-time champs have been pretty dominant on home soil this season, taking the maximum points on 13 of 17 occasions. Only Inter has been more successful at home. AC Milan has lost nine straight times here and overall they’ve been fading in 2021, getting ousted in the Europa League by Manchester United and most of their wins in the Italian top flight coming against bottom of the table sides. They’d dropped B2B games before a 2-0 win over Benevento last week. Thanks to Cristiano Ronaldo scoring twice, Juve was able to come back against underrated Udinese last week. Ronaldo has now scored multiple goals in nine different matches this season. 10* Juventus
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