|Over 8.5 (-103) @ pinnacle|
My 10* Goin' Over Total is on SF/Phi Over at 7:05 ET.
The Giants finished just ONE game out of a spot in the expanded playoffs during Gabe Kapler's first season after he replaced the retiring Bruce Bochy. San Francisco didn't make any major moves this offseason but got Buster Posey back behind the plate after he opted out of the 2020 season. San Francisco re-signed Kevin Gausman (more in a bit) and added Alex Wood, Anthony DeSclafani and Aaron Sanchez to bolster the rotation. Kinda brings back memories of Glavive, Maddux and Smoltz. Meanwhile, the Phillies opened the 2021 season seeking their first winning season since 2011, with hopes of ending a NINE-year postseason drought. The teams begin a three-game series tonight in Philadelphia, with the Giants checking in at 9-6 and the Phillies at 8-7.
The Giants are 9-6, despite an offense that ranks 29th in runs scored (3.27 per game) and in team BA (.205). The Phillies' offense isn't much better, averaging 3.80 RPG (22nd) with a .236 BA (13th). So why go over? The fact is, I think BOTH starters are very vulnerable (Gausman for SF and Anderson for Phi). The Giants re-signed Gausman and one wonders what they expect from him. He entered the season having made 203 big league appearances (164 starts) with a 50-66 record and 4.31 ERA. He's NEVER had a winning season in eight years. He surprised me with two solid starts (13.2 IP / 2 ERs) in 2021 but at home vs Cincy (4/13), allowed five ERs in six innings. He's made four career starts vs Philly, going 0-3 (team is 1-3) with a 6.45 ERA.
The 33-year-old Anderson finished 53-40 with a 3.94 ERA in 166 appearances with the Arizona Diamondbacks and Milwaukee Brewers from 2014-19. He did go 29-16 with a 3.63 ERA from 2017-19 with Milwaukee but was awful for Toronto in 2020, with a 7.22 ERA, 1.63 WHIP and .315 BAA in 10 appearances (seven starts). His first two starts of 2021 have come against the Mets and he's pitched just nine innings, allowing four ERs. He is 3-2 with a 4.76 ERA in nine starts (teams are 5-4) vs the Giants. I don't expect a slugfest but I do expect at least one starter (hopefully both) to struggle. It's Goin' Over.