|Over 20.5 (-106) @ pinnacle|
Matchup: Jannik Sinner v Rafael Nadal
Pick: 10* Over 20.5 Games
This match being the night session is important, conditions in Rome will be cooler, significantly changing how devastating Nadal’s forehand will be.
When the weather is warm and the courts are dry Nadal is at his best, the topspin he produces with his lefty forehand spits high into the right-handers backhand, making that shot extremely uncomfortable to hit.
When the weather is cooler that shot doesn’t have the same effect, allowing right-handers with amazing backhands like Sinner to play more competitively in the rally.
We seen that happen at the French Open last October, Sinner pushed Nadal to the brink in the first set, narrowly losing in a tiebreaker, the match finished 7-6/6-4/6-1, an injury reoccured for Sinner in the final set.
Sinner is 12-4 versus left-handers (excluding Nadal) this shows just how strong his backhand is, his amazing wrist action allows him to change direction with ease.
Nadal isn’t playing with huge confidence right now, a title in Barcelona has been sandwiched between defeats to Rublev & Zverev in Monte Carlo & Madrid respectively.
The weather is likely to hinder the Spaniard, conditions are expected to be cloudy and wet for most of the day, leading to muddier, lower bouncing conditions.
This is still the greatest clay courter the game has ever seen however, Sinner is a huge underdog but can keep this contest close, this total remains too low. Over 20.5 Games
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