|Over 203.5 (-111) @ pinnacle|
4 of 4 (100%) Experts with a pick on the total are aligned. 8* play on the Boston vs Miami OVER (Total).
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We saw an exceptionally low-scoring game two nights ago in Boston - as we anticipated with a play on the first half 'under'. Here, I expect a different story to unfold as the scene shifts back to Miami for Game 5 on Wednesday. Note that the Heat were held to just 30 made field goals in Game 4. That's happened just three times previously this season with the 'over' cashing in their next game each and every time, resulting in an average total of 226 points, including Game 4 last round against Philadelphia - a contest that flew over the posted total of 208 with 224 points. Also note that the 'over' is 17-8 with the Celtics coming off a win by 15+ points this season, leading to an average total of 220.9 points. The 'over' is also a perfect 7-0 with Miami coming off a contest that totalled 190 points or less, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 226.3 points scored in that spot. The Celtics have been a slightly better offensive team on the road compared to at home this season, knocking down an average of 41 field goals per contest while for their part, the Heat average 40 made field goals per game at home.
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Total Over picks are 28-15-0 when the game total line is smaller than the current game total since 2016-11-25 with a profit of +11 units
Total Over picks are 17-5-0 when the game total line is smaller than the current game total since 2017-12-22 with a profit of +11 units
Total Over picks are 20-8-0 when after a straight-up win since 2022-02-15 with a profit of +11 units
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Three of the four games have finished with more than this total and overall the games have averaged 212.5PPG. The only game that didn’t go Over the number was Game 4 in Boston when the Heat had a horrendous shooting night at 33% which is well below their season average of 46.7% (13th). With Miami coming back home tonight we expect a much better shooting performance. Boston has many offensive weapons on offense with Tatum, Brown, Horford and Smart if he plays. The Celtics put up 102 points in the most recent game but they basically coasted in the second half, scoring 45-points after putting up 57 in the first half. The field goal attempts have been high enough to produce higher scores with 168 in Game 4, 162, 170 and 169. Based on those FGA’s, shooting percentages this game should result with a minimum of 214 total points. The Heat home playoff games have averaged 213.25 total points.
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This has been a wild, back-and-forth series. Each team is dealing with injuries, but now all tied up, we're expecting Game 5 to be much more wide open than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe with this super low over/under line tonight.
Boston won 102-82 last time out, but note that the Heat have seen the total go OVER the number in nine of their last 11 in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent in which they were held to 95 or fewer points in.
The over is 8-2-1 in the Celtics' last 11 games as a road underdog, and we can expect this really strong trend to continue tonight.
Best of luck!
at covers experts
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