8* Take San Diego State (#741)

To say that Utah State has been beating up on the weak is something of an understatement.  Yes, the Aggies are 9-3 overall and 6-0 in Mountain West Conference play.  Those six conference wins have come against the three weakest teams in the MWC; teams with a combined conference record of 1-17.  Their three non-conference wins came against comparable bottom feeders; their ‘best’ win coming against a 3-8 Northern Iowa team that is currently ranked #181 in the nation in the advanced metrics. 

Utah State is 0-3 SU, 0-3 ATS against non-bottom feeders, not a trustworthy team tonight.  And because the Aggies have enjoyed one blowout after the next against all the weaklings on their schedule, this team is 1) overrated in the betting markets thanks to their ‘not as good as it looks’ statistical profile and 2) not used to executing with the game on the line down the stretch.  All nine of the Aggies wins have come by double digit margins; every conference win has come by 19 points or more; nary a competitive game in the bunch. 

San Diego State is in revenge for a loss in the Mountain West Tournament title game last March—after sweeping the two regular season meetings.  They’ve played a whole bunch of close games already, including their last two contests where they beat Nevada by 2 and 5 points.  Their two best games of the season – beating Arizona State and blowing out St Mary’s – both came away from home.  In fact, the Aztecs have won their last 16 regular season games away from home; a truly impressive track record.  Senior leader Mike Mitchell: “We’re road dogs.”  I concur!  Take San Diego State.