10* Big Ticket: Take Alabama – Ohio State OVER (#499-500)

Let me start with this: these are two coaching staffs worthy of trust.  Both teams have the same weakness; a secondary that, at times, has given up big plays in bunches.  Both coaching staffs are well aware how much their defenses are vulnerable with the group of playmakers expected to be on the field on Monday Night, especially with Jaylen Waddle looking increasingly likely to play and Justin Fields recovering well from his bruised ribs.  Trey Sermon, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Najee Harris, Devonta Smith – they are all threats to break free for a big play TD any time they’ve got the ball in their hands in space.

When two smart coaching staffs recognize their own weakness and their opponents strength, the recipe is clear – they’ve got to put points on the board.  I expect aggressive playcalling and downfield shots all night long; a game that should be a fun one to watch.  In addition, I’m expecting both coaches to eschew short field goals – this is a game where touchdowns in bunches is paramount.  All season, Alabama has only slowed down in second halves with big leads; an extraordinarily explosive offensive ballclub with NFL talent at every position.   But I don’t expect the Crimson Tide are going to be in that situation here – milking the clock with a big lead -- against a Buckeyes offense that has hung 38+ six times in seven games; an Over machine.    

Don’t stress about the side at all; just sit back, relax and let the touchdowns pile up.  The wiseguys in the broader betting markets are keeping this total from going through the roof – there’s ample $$ that thinks this total is too high for a high stakes game of this magnitude.  I disagree strongly!  Big Ticket: Take the OVER.