|Atal (-174) @ pinnacle|
10* Atalanta (2:45 ET): A huge 10-point gap exists between 7th and 8th place in the Serie A table. However, to me, the “real dividing line” is between 5th and 6th. The top five can all claim a vastly superior YTD goal differential compared to the rest of the field. Atalanta is among the top five, currently fourth, in what is shaping up to be a tight Champions League race (top four qualify). Atalanta’s domestic form has been strong of late as they come into Sunday having won six of their last seven Serie A fixtures.
Fiorentina is eight points clear of relegation, but sitting in 15th place there’s not much to play for the rest of the way. Finishing in the top half seems unlikely and recent form doesn’t suggest such a run is even conceivable at this point. The Tuscan side has picked up only five points from its last six matches. They’ve got just one win during that stretch, although they did play to a 1-1 draw with Genoa before the last International Break. Furthermore, Fiorentina has recorded the second fewest points against sides in the top half of the table this campaign. Only last place Crotone has fewer.
Atalanta won the reverse fixture 3-0 and is coming off another high-scoring effort, 3-2 over Udinese, which really wasn’t that close. With fifth place Napoli only two points back, Atalanta can’t afford a letdown here. Best case, they could move into third (past Juventus) with a win Sunday. They are tied w/ Juve for the second best GD in Serie A (+32) and I very much believe La Dea could end up finishing as high as second when all is said and done. They are tied with 1st place Inter for most goals scored this season (68). 10* Atalanta