|DM (-128) @ pinnacle|
Matchup: Daniil Medvedev v Dominic Thiem
Pick: 8* Medvedev Moneyline
Thiem leads the head-to-head 3-1 but these conditions are more favourable to Medvedev in this matchup.
Both players came through tough three set matches against Djokovic & Nadal yesterday, however Medvedev appeared the fresher of the pairing and it’s a Thiem has played some intense matches this week, a quick turnaround after a near three hour marathon against Djokovic is not ideal.
Medvedev is basically a taller, rangier version of Djokovic, his backhand is rock solid while his defense & wingspan allows him to retrieve balls and reset rallies from near impossible positions.
A weakness of Medvedev’s has been his lack of aggression, especially on the return but he made adjustments against Nadal that paid dividends in the 2nd & 3rd sets, I would expect him to do the same against Thiem who will look to attack the net.
Medvedev can be troubled when his opponent opts to slice their backhand and force him to create his own pace, however he received plenty of that against Nadal yesterday and is adjusting his patterns well.
Thiem’s game revolves around heavy serves & groundstrokes, giving Medvedev the power he enjoys counter-punching with, while Thiem’s return is still one of his few weaknesses, Medvedev has served immaculately all week.
Medvedev appears physically fresher and Thiem will need to reproduce his performance from yesterday to emerge victorious, don’t be surprised if he suffers a letdown here. Medvedev Moneyline.