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Pick Details


MLB EVENT
Apr 30 2021 at 7:37 PM ET
Atlanta
at
Toronto
Sport: MLB | Star Rating: 10.0 Evaluation: Loss (-1080) - Final Total 18
Pick
Under 10.5 (-108) @ sportsinteraction

#929/930 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 10.5 Runs – Toronto vs Atlanta, Friday at 7:35 PM ET – This O/U opened up at 9.5 and went to 10.5 and there are key reasons why this is offering huge value to the under.  First off this is a battle of southpaws.  The Braves are hitting an unreal .136 versus left-handed pitching!  As you would expect with that horrible number, Atlanta ranks dead last in the majors in that category this season.  The Blue Jays are also struggling versus lefties as Toronto has a slugging percentage of .358 versus southpaws to rank 25th out of 30 teams in MLB.  Starting tonight is Drew Smyly for the Braves.  He just returned from injury and had a horrible first inning but then settled in and allowed only one more run the rest of the way.  Smyly will draw some momentum from the way that start wrapped up and the Blue Jays have very few hitters with experience against him which is another definite advantage.  The Braves bullpen ranks in the middle of the pack this season so they are not horrible and the Blue Jays bullpen is actually at the top of the majors with a 2.30 ERA on the season.  That Toronto pen will be supporting a Jays starter, Robbie Ray, who saw his fastball nearing triple digits in his most recent start.  Ray fanned 9 in that outing and has a 2.81 ERA this season and should be in top form against an Atlanta lineup that has struggled so badly with lefties this season.  The Braves have had two big games at the plate (both against the Cubs) in last 9 games but the other 7 games saw Atlanta average only 2.6 runs per game.  The Blue Jays have scored an average of just 3.3 runs last 9 games.  Per our computer math model, this game lands around 6 to 8 runs and even if it reaches 9 (or even 10 based on the current posted total of 10.5) that is still a winning ticket.  We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one!  Bet the UNDER

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