|Over 23 (-113) @ pinnacle|
Matchup: Rafael Nadal v Stefanos Tsitsipas
Pick: 8* Over 23 Games
Winner takes all in this final group match, the loser is eliminated while the winner advances to the semi-finals.
Tsitsipas won this tournament in 2019, losing a narrow group match to Nadal in the process, 7-6/4-6/5-7.
Three of their four previous outdoor/indoor hard court matches have gone over the total, these conditions are particularly favorable.
The courts are playing at a medium pace but the ball travels faster through the air indoors, Nadal struggles with his return game in quicker conditions, Tsitsipas serve/forehand combination is devestating and will earn him a lot of cheap points.
Tsitsipas backhand is a weakness indoors, Nadal being a lefty will send the majority of his serves/forehands into that wing.
Expecting another very close matchup between these players, both have their struggles on the return and we should see at least one tiebreak. Over 23 Games.