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Pick Details


MLB EVENT
May 2 2021 at 1:10 PM ET
Chicago
at
Cincinnati
Sport: MLB | Star Rating: 8.0 Evaluation: Win (800) - Final Score CIN 13 at CHC 12
Pick
1.5 CHC (-145) @ pinnacle

8* Run Line Chi Cubs (1:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play where I am backing the Cubs at +1.5. The Cubs didn’t need many runs to defeat the Reds yesterday. After giving up two in the bottom of the first, they didn’t allow any more the rest of the game and ended up winning 3-2 thanks to Nick Hoerner’s game-winning single in the sixth. The Cubs’ bullpen certainly did its job on Saturday. While this hasn’t been a good road team in 2021, I don’t see them doing any worse than a one-run loss today. 

Throw away a bad start at Pittsburgh on 4/11 and the Cubs’ Trevor Williams has done a pretty good job this season. In his other four outings, Sunday’s starter has gone at least five innings while allowing no more than two runs. I know the Reds scored a lot of runs at home in the early going (of the season), but they’ve (predictably) slowed down considerably. Over the L10 games, the Reds are batting a collective .226 and they had only four hits after the first inning yesterday. Williams, who is 6-3 in his career vs. Cincinnati, can get the job done today. 

The Reds will give the baseball to Tyler Mahle for this series finale. Mahle is off to a good start, but let’s not discount how poor the team’s bullpen has been in ‘21. Going into yday’s game, Reds’ relievers had combined for a 6.49 ERA and 1.50 WHIP at home. That group is a big reason why the team has been outscored by 16 runs over its L10 games. Similar to the predictable Reds’ offensive decline, the Cubs’ bats are due to improve. They’ve scored 6+ runs six times in the L14 games. 8* Run Line Chi Cubs

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