|Over 2.5 (-180) @ pinnacle|
7* Over Jotko/Strickland (11:00 ET): This fight is scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s Middleweight Division (185 lbs). Krzysztof Jotko is 22-4 overall, including 9-4 in the UFC. Strickland has a very similar record at 22-3 overall, including 9-3 in UFC. Strickland will prefer this fight to be standing where he will have the edge striking. But Jotko is going to want to look for takedowns and get things on the mat as he is the superior wrestler. I envision this one likely going to the scorecards. I’ll take the Over 2.5 rounds.
Strickland comes in as the decided favorite in this one and for good reason. After recovering from a motorcycle accident that cost him two years of his career, he came back and delivered two of the best performances of his career: a decision victory over Jack Marshman back on Halloween night, followed by a second round TKO of Branden Allen three weeks later. It should be noted that Strickland has only been stopped once in his career. That was back in 2018. Since coming to the UFC, the majority of his fights have gone to decision.
Jotko may discover it difficult to take down Strickland, who has 82% takedown defense. On a three fight wins streak, all by decision, Jotko will definitely still try to get this fight down on the mat. His best path to victory is to turn this into a bit of a slog and - while standing - keep Strickland in a clinch. I don’t know how effective he’ll be in doing that, but expect Jotko to survive nonetheless. Seven of Jotko’s last 10 fights have gone to the scorecards. This one makes it at least halfway through Round 3. 7* Over Jotko/Strickland
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