|1.5 DET (-128) @ pinnacle|
I'm playing DETROIT on the run-line (+1.5 runs) While I like the Tigers' chances of winning this one outright, in a game which could be close, I'm happy to grab the extra +1.5 runs. There's no denying that Detroit has struggled; it's going to be a long season. The Tigers' poor record can often lead to excellent line value though, particularly when up against a "big name" team like the Cubs. In today's case, they've got a far superior starter on the mound, statistically speaking. Urena has a 3.60 ERA through seven starts, a 2.45 ERA his past three. (Two wins against Berrios and Giolito and a 2-0 loss against Kluber and the Yanks.) Williams has a 5.81 ERA through seven starts, a 7.71 ERA his past three. On the road, Williams has been particularly brutal. He's 0-2 (team is 0-3) with a terrible 10.64 ERA and 2.727 WHIP. That's nearly three baserunners every inning. Urena has allowed two earned runs or less in six straight. Expect AT LEAST a "run-line cover" from the home team.