|Under 4 1st 5 (-102) @ pinnacle|
My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Friday.
The Braves got off to a fast start at the plate and cruised the rest of the way in last night's 7-2 victory. I look for the starting pitchers to dominate Friday's contest, in the early going at least.
Max Fried will get the nod for Atlanta. After struggling in his first few starts against the Phillies back in 2019 he's been locked in over his last three going back to the start of last season. In those three outings he has allowed just three earned runs in 15 innings of work. Note that Fried comes into this start off a seven-inning shutout performance against the Rays last week. While his road numbers are poor this season, it's worth noting that in his last two road starts on five days' rest (as is the case here) he's given up just four earned runs in 11 innings.
By playing the first five innings only we'll avoid a Braves bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a 4.63 ERA and 1.54 WHIP on the road this season.
Zack Wheeler will counter for Philadelphia. He is of course enjoying a career year and has been particularly sharp here at home, recording a 2.16 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in 11 starts. Not surprisingly, he's owned the Braves in two previous home starts this season, allowing only five hits while posting a ridiculous 22:0 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 15 shutout innings.
The Phillies bullpen is another one we'll look to avoid, noting that they've posted a collective 5.15 ERA and 1.40 WHIP with 11 saves converted compared to nine blown at home this season. Take the first five innings under (7*).
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