|BUF (140) @ williamhill|
Taking the Sabres for 5* here...
The Flyers are picking up right where they left off -- giving up a ton of good scoring chances and only winning because Hart saves them. The Flyers were outplayed in both games against the Penguins. They were outshot the first game by 10 with 49% of expected goals at 5 on 5, and outshot by 11 in the second game with only 37.5% of expected goals.
The Sabres on the other hand outplayed the Capitals both games at 5 on 5 and really only lost because of the Capitals powerplay converting. They generated 57.5% of expected goals the first game and 62% of expected goals the second game. The Capitals have better expected goals % than the Flyers every year as well.
This is a similar situation that the Penguins were in and they won the game (though it took them until the shootout to do it). One team was losing but deserved to be winning, and another team was winning and deserved to be losing. It usually doesn't last for all that long.