|Over 7 (-124) @ Draftkings|
My MLB 10* Total of the Week is on Mil/SD Over at 4:10 ET.
The San Diego Padres were expected to give the LA Dodgers a run for their money' in 2021 but with a four-game series in LA looming Thursday through Sunday, the Padres are just 10-9, while the Dodgers are 14-4. The Padres were able to avoid a three-game sweep at home this past Sunday against the Dodgers with a 5-2 win but have now lost the first two contests of this three-game home series with the Brewers, scoring just ONE run in losses on Monday and Tuesday. The visiting 10-7 (.588) Milwaukee Brewers shoot for a three-game sweep Wednesday afternoon, just percentage points behind the 9-6 Cincinnati Reds (.600) in the NL Central.
Milwaukee's team ERA is 2.75 (3rd) and its WHIP is 1.03 (2nd). San Diego's team ERA is 2.50 and its WHIP is 1.01, 1st in both categories in MLB. Adrian Houser (1-2, 3.14 ERA) will start for the Brewers, while Dinelson Lamet will make his 2021 debut for the Padres. Houser is a modest 8-15 in 60 career appearances (32 starts) with a 4.06 ERA and was a poor 1-6 with a 5.30 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. His 3.14 ERA in three 2021 starts is solid but his 1.54 WHIP is troublesome. Lamet was 3-1 in 12 starts (Padres were 10-2) last season with a 2.09 ERA, an 0.86 WHIP and a .161 opponents' batting average (93-20 KW ratio).
Clearly, Lamet's pitching helped the Padres end a 13-year postseason drought in 2020 but he left his final regular-season start clutching the elbow that underwent Tommy John surgery in 2018. He did not pitch in the 2020 playoffs and has been brought along slowly in spring training while rehabbing his elbow (no more surgery). This marks his first appearance since September 25th of last season. What to expect? This over/number is VERY low and I expect the Padres to avoid the home sweep by "getting to" the so-so Houser. I'm willing to play the over in this one.