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Pick Details

Kenya Savannah Classic 3:00 AM | Fri, Mar 26 2021
Sport: European Tour | Star Rating: 4.0 Evaluation: Loss (-400)
100 (True) - Pre-Tournament Futures @ Multiple Sportsbook

This week's European Tour event comes hot-on-the-heels of last week's tournament...

The good news for the players is that they don't have to travel anywhere to play in this week's SAVANNAH CLASSIC - as it's being held at the same venue as last week's Kenya Open.

As a result it'll be interesting to see which players can hold their form, which one might fold in the face of another week in the firing line, and who will come-on for last week's pipe-opener and outperform their previous showing.

All makes for a fascinating betting heat for this week's European Tour event.

Here's a preview of the action in East Africa...

The Tournament - we saw the European Tour twice hold tournaments back-to-back in the same venue in 2020, as they looked to piece together the schedule after lockdown. Then we witnessed two week stop-overs at Celtic Manor in Wales and Aphrodite Hills in Cyprus. This time around, it's the turn of the Karen GC in Nairobi, Kenya to play host to this duo of events. And even if this is a new event on the circuit, at least the players will be familiar with the conditions!

The Course - Once again we're at Karen Country Club near the Kenyan capital, Nairobi. Used several times for Challenge Tour events this 6,922 yard layout will play as a par 71. The course dates back to the 1930's and is named after Karen Blixen, a Danish pioneer. More recently it has been upgraded by David Jones and now features plenty of water and has tighter than usual fairways. But not long, and at altitude, it will present the players with good scoring opportunities.

72-Hole Record - 261, Maarten Lafeber (1999) - recorded in the Kenya Open.

18-Hole Record - 63, Sebastain Garcia Rodriguez (2021) - recorded in the Kenya Open.

The Field - A standard field with 156 players teeing it up this week. Kurt Kitayama is the +1400 market leader.

The Weather - It'll be mostly dry on Tuesday, although some rain is forecast (40%). The rest of the week is fine, with light cloud. The temperature will reach the low 80s, and the players will get some assistance from the light winds which will hit a maxium of 15mph during the week.

The Bets - There are four players to back at odds ranging from +2100 to +15100.

Here are the details...


(starts Tuesday)

Bet: Place 0.5 unit to win, plus 0.5 unit on Top 10 (total stake 1 unit)
Winner Odds: +2100 Bet365, Pointsbet
Top 10 Odds: +300 Bet365, William Hill

"A lot of what I said about last week's conditions, and the type of player the course will suit, remains unchanged for this week's second outing at the Karen GC. As I thought, we did see a South African winner last week - just not the player I expected! That said, the mix on the final leaderboard was wider than anticipated and, one week on, I believe the bias towards "home" players will be less marked again this time around. What we did see were plenty of players with form at certain, similar European Tour venues (Valderrama, Crans-sur-Sierre, Wentworth) feature strongly. Migliozzi is one such player - but as a winner here in 2019 we already know he has a strong liking for this course. Last week's slow-starting 12th finish, therefore, caught the eye, and without being the defending champion this week, the talented Italian must have a great chance of challenging once again provided he starts well. The offers of +2100 is a fair price in a market that is very hard to weigh-up objectively, given the less than 48-hour turnaround from Sunday's Kenya Open finish."

Bet: Place 0.5 unit to win, plus 0.5 unit on Top 10 (total stake 1 unit)
Winner Odds: +6100 Bet365, William Hill
Top 10 Odds: +650 William Hill

"Catlin, like Migliozzi, was another strong finisher yesterday. The American closed with a 65 to secure a Top 30 finish after a slow start had put him in danger of missing the halfway cut. What caught my attention with Catlin was the fact that he ranked 2nd for Greens-In-Regulation, but 60th for Putting. So now having had a good look at the greens, and a further day to practice with the flatstick, I would expect him to perform much better second time around. Add in the fact that Catlin has won before at a very demanding track like Valderrama, and his game looks well-suited to conditions. As a multiple winner, all around the world, I don't believe quotes of 66/1 do him any justice, and he's another player, with a fresh start, who can be expected to be much closer to the top of the leaderboard. At the price, the under-rated Catlin is a very decent bet IMO."

Bet: Place 0.5 unit to win, plus 0.5 unit on Top 10 (total stake 1 unit)
Winner Odds: +10100 Bet365, William Hill
Top 10 Odds: +1000 Bet365

"Kawamura missed the cut in the Kenya Open, but I'm not going to write off the Japanese player just because of one poor round on Thursday. He's another who has shown collateral form on other courses to suggest that he has the game to do well here - notably finishing Top 10 at Valderrama last year. Now I am only staking small on this player, as his career record to date is more about securing high finishes, than winning tournaments outright. But taking a line through his marked improvement in the Cyprus double-header at the end of last year (when he went 34th in week one, before coming 2nd the next week) Kawamura may prove to be a quick learner. This week's field, much the same as last week, isn't the strongest we'll see on tour by any stretch of the imagination, so having an interest is justified at the generous odds on offer."

Bet: Place 0.5 unit to win, plus 0.5 unit on Top 10 (total stake 1 unit)
Winner Odds: +15100 Pointsbet
Top 10 Odds: +1300 Betvictor

"Hend is another player who ticks plenty of boxes when it comes to playing well on courses similar to this week - Crans-sur-Sierre and Wentworth being notable examples. What was interesting to note was a return to form, and a Top 20 finish, last week in the Kenya Open, after a run of indifferent showings in previous tournaments. The Australian has been around a long time, but he does win events, and he is more than capable of holding his own in a field which is bereft of any great strength in depth. Last week he sat two shots off the lead going into Sunday, but his effort was ruined with a final round 73 when, had he shot a par score for the leaders of 66 or 67, he'd have been right there in the firing line. Now I don't believe this will adversely affect the veteran, and as a result the odds on offer looks way too big to ignore."


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