|5 ARV (-110) @ pinnacle|
Matchup: Albert Ramos-Vinolas v Andrey Rublev
Pick: 8* Albert Ramos-Vinolas +5 Games
Rublev has admitted to feeling tired, he's already played 30 matches this year and he's spent a lot of time on court since the tour returned last August.
This is a tricky matchup, Rublev's weakest wing defense wise is his backhand and Ramos lefty forehand naturally targets that wing, he also has the advantage of home support and he's regained confidence this season, finalist in Cordoba, semi-finalist in Buenos Aires and semi-finalist in Marbella.
Conditions in Barcelona are drier than Monte Carlo, the ball is spitting up off the surface and this suits Ramos-Vinolas more than Rublev, who struggled past lucky loser Federico Gaio on Wednesday.
Rublev's quality means he can win this even if he's tired, however this spread is simply too big to expect him to cover, all the value lies with the underdog. Albert Ramos-Vinolas +5 Games.