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Pick Details

(463) Cincinnati vs. Washington (464) 1:00 PM | Sun, Nov 22 2020
Sport: NFL | Star Rating: 10.0 Evaluation: Loss (-1100) - Final Total 29
Over 46.5 (-110) @ Draftkings

10* Big Ticket: Take Washington – Cincinnati OVER (#463-464)

Sunday’s game in Washington is setting up as a potential offensive explosion for both teams, yet we’re seeing a total that reflects season averages not current form or current situations.  It’s a situation that sets up ideally for Over bettors on Sunday, especially considering the fact that both ‘Riverboat Ron’ and Zac Taylor are coaches who like to go for it on fourth down – good news for Over bettors when that happens.  With mild weather expected, this game is worthy of a Big Ticket sized wager.

Both defenses are in a world of hurt.  The Bengals have cluster injury problems in their secondary, down to three healthy cornerbacks last week.  Cinci just gave up 36 points and 333 passing yards to Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers on a very windy day, without recording a single sack in the process.

Washington, too, has been stymied by a lack of a pass rush in recent weeks and despite ‘Top 10 defense’ season long numbers, they just allowed 6.8 yards per play against the Lions (league average is 5.4 ypp).  I’m not expecting either defense to control the flow here.

Joe Burrow suffered through a dismal afternoon against Pittsburgh last week.  Here’s his quote: “I know I’m not going to play like that very often…hopefully never again, but maybe once a year.”  Taking a major step down in defensive class, I’m expecting a strong bounceback from Burrow this week.  Cinci’s three headed WR monster of AJ Green, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd are all threats to take it to the end zone every time they catch a pass.

Alex Smith has been in the NFL since 2005, but he just put together the first back-2-back 300+ yard passing games of his career.  No surprise, then, that Washington has gone Over the total in back-2-back weeks, ending a streak of Unders that dated all the way back to September.   This is an offense that scored more than 20 points only once in their first six games, but they’ve scored 20+ in each of the last three weeks.  Terry McLaughlin, Cam Sims and Antonio Gibson are all speedsters – this offense, too, is capable of producing big plays in bunches.  In this high scoring season, expect fireworks in this non-conference matchup between two non-playoff teams!  Big Ticket: Take the OVER.


What does ‘Star Rating’ mean?
Star Rating is the number of units the handicapper is risking on the bet. Therefore, if the Star Rating is 7.0, it is a 7-unit pick. On plus odds picks, the handicapper is risking their Star Rating unit amount. On negative odds picks, the handicapper is betting enough to win their Star Rating unit amount.
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