Pick Details

Torino v Lazio

PICK: pinnacle @ LAZIO (-122)

DATE: June 30, 2020 - 2:30 PM

STAR RATING: 9.0

SPORT: Serie A

EXPERT: Soccer Authority

EVALUATION: Win (900)

ANALYSIS:

We're playing Lazio to win - 9* play

Torino

Torino’s form hasn’t improved much under their new coach Moreno Longo. 6 matches in and they’ve lost 4. They’ll need a gargantuan effort to stop Lazio keeping pace with Juventus tomorrow.

  • From their 6 league games under Longo they have won just once (vs Udinese) Interestingly however they lost the xG in this match by a large margin. Considering Udinese are one of the weakest attacking teams in the league that doesn’t bode well for them here.
  • From those games Torino played just one Top 6 team (Napoli) they lost that match 2-1 and as the xG shows it wasn’t really competitive (xG 2.16-0.82)
  • Last time out Torino shipped 4 goals against Cagliari (lost 4-2)
  • Torino will be without Baselli and Zaza for this match, elsewhere they should be close to full strength
  • In terms of chances allowed to the opposition. There haven’t been many teams worse than Torino so Lazio should have their chances to kill this game off. ~1.75 xGA allowed per home game this season
  • This will be Torino’s 4th game in 10 days

Lazio

Lazio got past a tricky opponent at the weekend. Fiorentina haven’t been the best this season but their compact defence has proved difficult to break down this season. Coming from a goal behind to take all three points should boost morale massively after the disappointment in Bergamo last week

  • Lazio have a stunning record against teams in the bottom half of the table, they’ve won 9 of their last 10 with 3.2 goals scored per game and only 1.1 conceded
  • When they met earlier in the season Lazio ran out 4-0 winners (xG 2.7-0.7)
  • Lazio are also expected to line up with a similar XI, they have no new injuries or suspensions. The only change should be Radu coming in for Bastos which bolsters the defence slightly more.
  • Lazio have averaged exactly 3 goals per game in all their matches against the teams that rank in the bottom 5 for xGA (Torino, Sassuolo, Lecce, Brescia, and SPAL)
  • From these same games, Lazio have allowed 1.14 xGA and 1.16 goals conceded per game
  • As mentioned above, Torino have played one more match than Lazio since the lockdown and both played their last match on Saturday, so in terms of squad fitness the edge might just go to Lazio.


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