|Under 18.5 (-106) @ pinnacle|
Matchup: Pablo Carreno Busta v Rafael Nadal
Pick: 8* Under 18.5 Games
Nadal hasn't played since March but he skipped the US Open to prepare for the clay court season, he will be ready to hit the ground running.
Carreno Busta had exhausting quarter/semi-final matches in New York and this is a very short turnaround considering the travel, time difference & change of surface, he's the only male semi-finalist in New York to make the journey to Rome.
Busta also had treatment on a back injury which certainly hasn't disappeared and the change of surface will likely hinder it further.
Nadal owns this matchup, Busta is much stronger on surfaces where he doesn't have to generate his own pace, Nadal's ability to hit heavy topspin forehands into Busta's backhand force him into hitting short balls for Nadal to attack.
Nadal might have some match rust but clay is his natural surface and Busta's physical issues should allow him to quickly settle into a rhythm, expect a commanding victory. Under 18.5 Games
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