|PHI (-178) @ pinnacle|
3 of 3 Experts (100%) with a pick on the moneyline are aligned. 8* play on the Philadelphia Phillies (Straight-up).
Ben Burns: 3-GAME MLB
While the Phillies lost a tough one yesterday, it didn't hurt them in the standings, as Atlanta (and Miami) lost, too. The Phillies know they need to take advantage of this favorable matchup though and I expect them to bounce back here. Eflin's lone start came against the powerful Yankees and he allowed 0 earned runs (2 unearned) through four innings, striking out five. While he's got a 0.00 ERA, LeBlanc has a poor 6.91 ERA through three starts. Last time out, he gave up six earned runs in 3 1/3 innings. With the O's just 34-75 the past 2+ seasons, when off a win, look for the Phillies to bounce back here.
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The Phillies keep finding ways to lose and last night’s 10-9 setback at the hands of the Baltimore Orioles may have taken the cake. Despite blowing an early 3-0 lead, Philly still found itself up a run heading into the ninth after a 3-run rally of their own in the bottom of the 8th. But then they gave up three runs in the top of the ninth. Still, they were able to tie it up by scoring two in the bottom half of the inning. But it just wasn’t meant to be as they gave up two in the 10th, then could only come up with one of their own. As frustrating a defeat as that defeat was, we think Philly overcomes it here as they send Eflin to the mound. Eflin didn’t allow any runs in his first start, which ended up being a 5-4 win against the Yankees. Baltimore goes with LeBlanc, whose three starts haven’t gone very well (6.91 ERA), especially the last one where he allowed six runs in 3 ⅓. The Orioles, projected to be the worst team in baseball by many, now have a winning record at 8-7. That isn’t going to last. They had a previous three-game win streak and promptly got shut out the next two games.
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Morale may be pretty low right now in the City of Brotherly Love (at least there’s the Flyers!) after another head-scratching loss last night. But I just can’t see the Phillies losing two in a row to the Orioles at home. The Phils had a three-run lead Tuesday and were still ahead going into the ninth. It ended up being a 10-9 defeat in extra innings as the team fell to 5-7 despite playing every game but two at home. But they’ve only been outscored by 4 runs all year and today should be a positive result.
Baltimore won only 54 games last year and 47 the year before that. Those win totals would be incredible for 2020, but remember those were 162-game seasons. They were outscored by 522 runs the previous two seasons and were widely expected to be bad again this year. But the O’s are surprising 8-7 following three straight wins, two of which have seen them score 10+ runs. But asking them to win more than three in a row is a tall order. They are just 2-8 the L3 seasons when on a win streak of three or more games. This includes a 4-0 loss to Miami last week.
Tonight’s starting pitching matchup seems to be heavily titled in the favor of the Phillies. Zach Eflin allowed just two unearned runs in his first start, which was a 5-4 win over the Yankees as a +125 ML dog. Wade LeBlanc started for Baltimore three times so far and has a 6.91 ERA. He was shelled both times on the road, giving up a total of 10 runs in 9 IP.
Best of luck!
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Winning Starts Here