Pick Details

Leonardo Santos vs Roman Bogatova 8:10 PM | Sat, Jul 11 2020
Sport: UFC | Star Rating: 8.0 Evaluation: Win (800)
LS (-175) @ bet365

3 of 3 Experts (100%) with a pick on the moneyline are aligned. 8* play on Leonardo Santos (Straight-up).


Cappers Analysis:


UFC 251 will be the first of four consecutive fight cards to emanate from “Fight Island” (in Abu Dhabi) in the month of July. For the pay per view event, we’ve decided to focus on an undercard bout that takes place at 155 pounds (lightweight). You will actually be able to watch this fight on ESPN as it is part of the prelims. It puts the undefeated Russian (Bogatov) against the veteran Santos. Despite the former’s perfect 10-0 career mark, he checks in as the decided underdog for this fight. That’s not all that surprising seeing as this will be his UFC debut and thus this fight is a tremendous step up in class from what Bogatov has dealt with in the past. Meanwhile this will be Santos’ 8th UFC fight and so far he’s gone 6-0-1. In fact, going back to 2010, Santos owns a 12-0-1 record in all fights with seven of the wins coming by either submission or knockout. Santos is a pure striker and will look to keep this fight standing while Bogatov is more of a submission expert and will want to get things to the ground. We believe Santos will avoid getting taken down. In his last fight, he outstruck his opponent 12-2 and ended it in only 2:17. It probably won’t be that quick this time around and he may not even be able to finish Bogatov. But look for Santos to get his hand raised.


I like Leonardo Santos to defeat Roman Bogatov in this UFC Lightweight division fight in UFC 251 on Saturday.

Santos last fought a year ago when he knocked out Stevie Ray in the first round at UFC Stockholm to make it 17-3-1 in his MMA career with a 6-0-1 mark in the UFC. He has not lost a fight since 2009, and here he'll face a 29-year-old Bogatov who will make his UFC debut here after a successful spell on the M-1 Global circuit.

While Bogatov is an undefeated 10-0 in M-1, I'm not sure he's ready for what's to come here against a 40-year-old veteran who knows the drill.

Bogatov is a submission specialist who will try and get Santos on his back, but he might struggle to keep his Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist opponent down. Santos has a clear edge on the feet, and I'm happy to take the more well-rounded veteran at this price.

Lee Sterling: UFC 9 Unit Mismatch Of The Month

Leonardo Santos has hands of steel. He's a freak athlete. The reason he's just -175 is he's only fought one fight in the last four years. His opponent Roman Bogatov won't know what hit him. This is his first UFC fight. His 10-0 record was achieved versus tomato cans.


Best of luck!

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