Pick Details

Mainz v RB Leipzig

PICK: pinnacle @ -1 LEIP (-137)

DATE: May 24, 2020 - 9:30 AM

STAR RATING: 10.0

SPORT: BUND

EXPERT: Soccer Authority

EVALUATION: Win (1000) - Final Score M 0 at LEIP 5

ANALYSIS:

We're playing RB Leipzig -1 Asian Handicap - 10* play

  • RB Leipzig are coming off a difficult 1-1 with Freiburg last weekend but that shouldn’t dissuade you from backing them in this match-up.

  • Christian Streich’s (Freiburg) style of play has for a long time been a thorn in Nagelmann’s side so that result shouldn’t concern you. Also, they put up 2.33 xG (20 attempts on goal) to Freiburg’s 0.39

  • RB Leipzig have scored an impressive 2.8 goals per match in their last 10 against teams in the bottom 6 (Mainz 15th)

  • From those 10 games, RB Leipzig won 9 and conceded just 5 times

  • Currently, Mainz rank 4th worst in the league for xGA (allowing chances) and 2nd worst for goals conceded so we can be pretty sure that a  full-strength RB Leipzig side can do some damage here.

  • In attack, they’re not the worst bit still lower to mid-tier in terms of goals and chance creation (xG).

  • Against Top 6 opposition things have been dire for Mainz, In their last 10 we’ve seen them W1 D2 L7 with an average of 2.9 goals conceded per game

  • As for team news, RBL are just without Ampadu but he’s not close to being a starter so they’ll be fielding their best XI. As for Mainz, they’re just without their starting GK Robin Zentner

  • Zentner’s back up (Florian Muller) has conceded on average 3.15 goals per 90 this season and recorded 0 clean sheets. His expected conceded goals (xCG) is 2.6 per 90 so it’s probably fair to say he’s not great.


Verdict: Despite the result last weekend RB Leipzig are still as dangerous as ever and should have no problems taking last week’s frustrations out on this Mainz side


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