|Under 211 (-110) @ williamhill|
10* Under Heat/Nuggets (1:05 ET): Back in March, the Heat’s goal was very simple - secure home court advantage for a first round playoff series. Miami was 27-5 SU at American Airlines Arena while just 14-19 SU on the road. So whomever the first round opponent ended up being - likely Philadelphia or Indiana - it would have been a big edge for the Heat to have the homecourt edge. Same for Denver out West as they were 25-8 SU at home compared to just 18-14 SU on the road. Now that we’re in a “bubble” and home court advantage no longer applies, where these two teams finish in their respective conference means less.
Still - both want the best possible first round matchups. Denver is currently 3rd in the West, but could still finish as low as 7th if things broke poorly. This is a deep team with six players averaging double figures. Leading scorer Nikola Jokic was diagnosed with COVID-19 while at home in Serbia, but is expected to be fine for the start of the season. Depth will be bolstered by the fact 7’2” Bol Bol seems ready to go. Something that may surprise you about these Nuggets is they were tied for 5th in points allowed.
I don’t really trust either side, especially Miami, to consistently shoot the ball well away from home. When the Heat traveled to Denver back in November, they shot 36.9% and lost by 20 points (109-89). It’ll be closer here as you shouldn’t underestimate the Heat’s defense either. They own an identical defensive efficiency rating to Denver. Both teams were in a slump, shooting-wise, before things got shut down. Like I said in the analysis of the Utah-NO game, I expect scoring to go down league-wide in Orlando. 10* Under Heat/Nuggets
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