Pick Details

Paderborn v Hoffenheim

PICK: pinnacle @ P (110)

DATE: May 23, 2020 - 9:30 AM

STAR RATING: 9.0

SPORT: BUND

EXPERT: Soccer Authority

EVALUATION: Loss (-900)

ANALYSIS:

We're playing Hoffenheim to win - 9* play

  • Hoffenheim were on the wrong side of variance in their match at the weekend against Hertha Berlin. TSG generated 2.79xG and missed three huge chances. Shot/xG Map
  • Andrej Kramarić who is Hoffenheim’s most prolific attacking threat is likely back for this match so we’ll be hoping he can improve their conversion rate.
  • Against Hertha Berlin, Hoffenheim fielded Bebou (3 goals in 24 appearances) who didn’t create much in the way of chances, he was replaced at halftime by 17-year-old Beier (72 total mins in the Bundesliga)
  • Overall this season Hoffenheim have been a little better than average in the league but that should be enough to see of this Paderborn side.
  • Overall TSG rank 7th for xG, 12th for xGA. That xGA ranking does look bad but we must remember that they’ve given away 6 penalties this season which is the 2nd highest in the league
  • In Hoffenheim’s last 10 away matches against teams in the bottom 6 (Paderborn 18th) they have won 7 and scored on average 2.7 goals per game
  • Paderborn have the worst xGA in the league and by far the worst xGA in the league when playing at home
  • When these teams last met it was it wasn’t a contest, Hoffenheim ran through them 3-0 giving up just one half-chance with a total match xGA of 0.37


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