Pick Details

(901) Atlanta vs. Philadelphia (902) 6:05 PM | Mon, Aug 10 2020
Sport: MLB | Star Rating: 9.0 Evaluation: Win (900)
PHI (-142) @ pinnacle

3 of 3 Experts (100%) with a pick on the moneyline are aligned. 9* play on the Philadelphia Phillies (Straight-up).


Cappers Analysis:


After dropping both games of yesterday's double-header, the Phillies know that they can ill afford to fall further behind the Braves in the NL East. Indeed, funny as it sounds, in this short season, this is practically a must-win game. OK, maybe thats exaggerating. But its definitely an important game. I expect Nola to help stop the bleeding. While he doesnt have any wins to show for it, Nola has a solid 3.97 ERA and a stellar 0.794 WHIP through two starts. Last time out, he limited the very powerful Yankees to a mere three hits and one run, while striking out 12 without walking a batter. Dominant. Newcomb, on the other hand, has a 6.57 ERA and 1.46 WHIP through his three starts. The Braves are 1-3 when Newcomb has started against Philadelphia. On the other hand, the Phils are 5-2 the past seven times that Nola started against Atlanta.


The set-up: No need to overanalyze this pick, as I think Phillies' ace Aaron Nola is well worth the price of admission in this matchup. Nola (0-1, 3.97 ERA) has one terrible start so far and one great one. In his last start he allowed one run off three hits and no walks while striking out 12 over six innings in an unfortunate no-decision to the Yanks on Wednesday. Note that Nola was particularly good in this spot by going 6-2 with a 2.92 ERA at home last year.

The pick: The visitors counter with Sean Newcomb (0-0, 8.22) who allowed two runs off five hits over 4.2 innings in a fortunate no-decision to the Jays on Wednesday. In his previous outing Newcomb allowed six runs over four innings vs. the Mets. Considering the talent discrepancy on the mound, I feel that this line should/could in fact be much steeper.

Power Sports: MONDAY POWER-HOUR (6:05 ET on FS1) ~ 11-0 L11 MLB SIDES!

This is the finale of a four-game series which has seen Atlanta take two of the first three. The Braves swept a doubleheader on Sunday (both games only 7 innings per 2020 rules), winning 8-0 and 5-2. So this is a big revenge spot for the Phillies. At 11-6, the Braves are off to a great start (+27 run differential) but before yday they were only 2-4 on the road. They are 0-3 this season as a road underdog of +125 to +175 and it’s worth noting the favorite has won all three games in this series.

Desperate to earn a series split, the Phillies will hand the baseball to Aaron Nola. Nola had some hard-luck his last start, receiving a no-decision despite holding the Yankees to just one run (a solo HR) and three hits in 6 IP. He also had 12 strikeouts. But the Phillies still lost 3-1. Nola is an impressive 10-5 w/ a 2.94 ERA in 18 career starts vs. Atlanta, so I expect him to pitch well again here.

 Sean Newcomb starts tonight for Atlanta. The southpaw failed to go a full five innings in either of his first two starts. Both of those were at home. He allowed six runs in the first one, only to get bailed out by the offense in an 11-10 Braves win over the Mets. He wasn’t as fortunate in his last start with the team losing 2-1 to Toronto. The Braves had one other shutout prior to yday and wound up losing their next game. History repeats itself here.


Best of luck!

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