Pick Details

CIN
at
CLE
(909) Cincinnati vs. Cleveland (910) 6:10 PM | Thu, Aug 06 2020
Sport: MLB | Star Rating: 10.0 Evaluation: Win (1000)
Pick
CLE (-116) @ pinnacle

3 of 3 Experts (100%) with a pick on the moneyline are aligned. 10* play on the Cleveland Indians (Staight-up).

 

Cappers Analysis:

Matt Fargo: Fargo's 10* MLB Thursday Sweet Spot (+$20,942 MLB Run)

Cleveland has won two straight games, both over Cincinnati, to move to 7-6 on the season, trailing the Twins by three and a half games in the American League Central. The Indians lead the bigs in ERA at 2.37 as the pitching has led the way behind an offense that has struggled early on. Carlos Carrasco has looked great in his first two starts since May 2019 as he has a 3.75 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Both starts have been quality outings and he is a perfect 3-0 in five starts against the Reds. Cincinnati has fallen to 6-7 with the two straight losses and it turns to Luis Castillo who posted a quality outing in his first start against the Tigers but got hit hard last time out against Detroit, allowing five runs on eight hits in six innings.

Larry Ness: Larry's MLB 10* "Battle 4 Ohio" (6-1, 86% MLB 10* run!)

The Cleveland Indians entered the 2019 season having won THREE straight AL Central titles but their 93 wins left them EIGHT games back of the 101-61 Minnesota Twins. The Indians opened the current season 4-2 at home and then took the first contest of a four-game series at Minnesota on Thursday, moving to 5-2. However, the Indians then lost the last three games of their series at Minnesota, getting outscored 10-2. Cleveland lost the first contest of its four-game, home-and-home series with Cincinnati Reds 3-2 on Monday but has rebounded to win the last two, 4-2 and 2-0 (Indians are currently 7-6). The Reds entered the current season off SIX consecutive losing seasons (averaging a modest 69.7 wins per season) but Cincinnati (at +230) was listed as co-favorites to win the NL Central with the Cubs. The team's starting pitching rotation of Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer, Wade Miley and Anthony DeSclafani looked VERY good on paper, plus the addition of Mike Moustakas and Nicholas Castellanos was great news to Joey Votto and the Reds' offense (NL using the DH was also great news). However, the Reds were just 2-5 before winning both ends of Sunday's seven-inning doubleheader at Detroit. 5-7 Cincinnati hopes to split its four-game, "Battle 4 Ohio" with the Indians, by taking Thursday's final.

Taking the mound will be Luis Castillo (0-1, 4.50 ERA) for the Reds and Carlos Carrasco (1-1, 3.75 ERA) for the Indians. Castillo started strong in 2019 with an 11-4 mark and enjoyed his first All-Star selection (was 8-3 with a 2.29 ERA at the break). His 11th win came on August 5 but he won just FOUR of his last nine starts (Reds were just 4-5 in those games). However, his 15 wins were fifth-best in the NL and his 226 strikeouts tied for 12th in strikeouts per nine innings (10.7). Castillo's only two starts in 2020 have come against the Tigers. He gave up five runs and eight hits over six innings of a 7-2 loss to the Tigers back on July 25 but then allowed just one run while striking out 11 over six innings on July 31 against Detroit (note: Reds have lost both starts).
 
Carlos Carrasco and the Indians beat KC 9-2 on July 27, as he won his first start in 423 days! Carrasco took the mound back on May 30, 2019 against the Chicago White Sox but days later was diagnosed with chronic myeloid leukemia, a blood disorder that threatened his life. He spent the next three months battling leukemia before returning in September to pitch out of the bullpen. He made 11 appearances, allowing 18 hits and 11 ERs in 15 innings (6.60 ERA). However, the 18-game winner in 2017 looked like his old dominant self against the Royals. He allowed two runs and five hits before he was lifted after allowing a leadoff double in the seventh. Carrasco retired the first 10 Royals he faced and finished with 10 Ks! Carrasco also pitched reasonably well last Saturday at Minnesota but allowed three solo HRs (over six innings) in a 3-0 loss.
 
I had Minnesota in that one, backing Kenta Maeda. My closing comments in that one was that "Carrasco's comeback has everyone rooting for him but I'm not one of them in tonight's contest. I'll root for Carrasco some OTHER time!" That "other time" is tonight! Carrasco may have a less-than-impressive 4.05 ERA in five starts against the Reds but he's 3-0 and the Indians are 5-0. That follows nicely with the fact that the Indians are 20-7 vs the Reds since the start of the 2015 season!

Tim Michael: 10* BANKROLL BUILDER > > CONSISTENT 12-8 (+$5K) ALL L7 DAYS!

Cleveland won 2-0 last night and I think it'll find a way to get the job done here as well and win this four game series 3-1. Luis Castillo gets the nod for the Reds and he enters off a terrible start vs. the Tigers, allowing five runs off eight hits. Carlos Carrasco heads to the hill for the home side and he has so far allowed five runs over 12 innings of work this season. Carrasco has two quality outings under his belt and I think he continues his progression here. Note as well that the Reds are 0-4 in their last four as an underdog, while Cleveland is interestingly 6-0 in Carrasco's last six starts vs. the NL Central division.

 

Best of luck!

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