Pick Details

ATL
at
PHI
(907) Atlanta vs. Philadelphia (908) 6:05 PM | Sat, Aug 08 2020
Sport: MLB | Star Rating: 9.0 Evaluation: Win (900)
Pick
PHI (-110) @ pinnacle

4 of 4 Experts (100%) with a pick on the moneyline are aligned. 9* play on the Philadelphia Phillies (Straight-up).

 

Cappers Analysis:

 

Anthony Stalter: MLB SATURDAY EVENING 8-STAR MONEYLINE SELECTION

I don’t understand the pricing on this matchup. With last night’s matchup between these two teams being postponed due to rain, the Phillies are taking the opportunity to start Jake Arrieta in his regular turn and push Vince Velasquez (who was slated to start on Friday night) back to Sunday’s double-header. Arrieta was solid in his 2020 debut, holding a powerful Yankees lineup to three runs over five innings while striking out four and walking none. The Braves’ lineup is dangerous, but it’s been strikeout prone and Arrieta usually does an excellent job of limiting hard contact.

Meanwhile, Atlanta will start Kyle Wright, who was also projected to take the mound last night. Wright was tagged for five runs in just 2 ⅔ innings versus the Rays in his season debut, then only went 3 ⅓ innings versus the Mets in his last start. While he didn’t allow a run versus New York, Wright had to battle to get his 10 outs, throwing just 45-of-75 pitches for strikes. He also walked five.

I fully believe this Philadelphia lineup is ready to explode. Bryce Harper is barrelling pitches at a 10.7% rate per plate appearance and his exit velo is 101.1 on fly balls and line drives. It wouldn’t surprise me if he went deep today. Jay Bruce, J.T. Realmuto and Didi Gregorius have healthy advanced metrics as well. I just love the value with the Phils here.

Forum Legends: National League East Battle

Veteran pitcher Jake Arrieta is expected to start for Philadelphia on Saturday night. He made his season debut on Monday night, allowing three runs on seven hits against the Yankees. He allowed two solo home runs in the loss,

Atlanta is 1-4 in its last five road games vs. a right-handed starter. Wright has not been very sharp in his first two starts of the season and is prone to giving up a big inning. Bryce Harper and the phillies should be able to get to wright in this one.
Arrieta is the better pitcher in this game and he should round into form in his second start of the season.

Jesse Schule: Schule's MLB GRIM REAPER B-L-O-W-O-U-T!

After Game 1 was rained out yesterday, the Phillies host the Braves in a matinee in the City of Brotherly Love on Saturday.

Jake Arrieta will toe the slab for Philly, and he's perhaps not the same pitcher he was with the Cubs. He's still a capable pitcher though, and he was 5-3 with a 4.36 ERA in 11 starts at home last year.

The Braves hand the ball to Kyle Wright, who hasn't looked all that sharp. He's walked seven batters in just six innings over two starts.

The Braves are 1-7 in their last eight games as a road underdog.

Scott Rickenbach: Rickenbach 10* MLB *GAME OF THE WEEK* Sat *He is on 83% RUN*

As mentioned here in my write-up yesterday (but the game was rained out), the Phillies lineup has been stronger than expected considering the layoff (covid-19) they've endured early this season. Philadelphia should enjoy plenty of success tonight at the plate against the Braves Kyle Wright. Yes, Wright's 2nd start was better than his first but that's not saying much. Wright's first start was very ugly and then in his 2nd start he was fortunate to work out of multiple jams. He is a highly regarded prospect but faces a big challenge with the hitters the Phillies have in their lineup. As for Philadelphia, they start Jake Arrieta here. Since coming to the Phillies from the Cubs in 2018, Arrieta has proven better at home than on the road and also better in evening starts than day games. Of course this is an evening game at Citizens Bank Park and I like the odds of Arrieta, a hard-fighting old-school gamer, to come up big in this key divisional battle for the Phillies. He seemed to get stronger as his start went on in his first outing this season and that was against a Yankees lineup that is arguably the most potent in all of baseball. Arrieta was getting plenty of swings and misses later in his start and really seemed to find good command of "his stuff" in the latter stages. Look for him to carry that momentum right into this start and the Phillies pen has plenty of fresh arms with all the extra time Philly has had off early this season and even so far this week too.

 

 

Best of luck!

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