Pick Details

(953) NY Mets vs. Philadelphia (954) 6:05 PM | Sat, Aug 15 2020
Sport: MLB | Star Rating: 8.0 Evaluation: Win (800)
PHI (-159) @ pinnacle

6 of 6 Experts (100%) with a pick on the moneyline are aligned. 8* play on the Philadelphia Phillies (Straight-up).


Cappers Analysis:



The Phillies got back on track yesterday and I expect them to carry the momentum into today's game. Matz is 0-3 (team is 0-4) with an ugly 8.20 ERA thus far. Nola, on the other hand, has a 2.79 ERA to go along with a superb 0.621 WHIP. The Phillies are 44-25 the past 2+ seasons, as home favorites in the -125 to -175 range. With Nola getting the better of Matz, expect them to improve on those stats here.

Forum Legends: Mets and Phillies - Gm 2

Steven Matz gets the call for his fifth start of the year for the Mets & hoping to get back on track after a sluggish start. He comes in 0-3 with an 8.20 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, three walks and 18 strikeouts while allowing a league-leading eight homers over 18.2 innings of work. Matz took the loss in his last start against the Nationals. He threw 4.1 innings, allowing eight runs on eight hits with no walks and five strikeouts in a game the Mets dropped by a 16-4 score. Matz is 1-4 with a 7.33 ERA, a 2.00 WHIP, 17 walks and 17 strikeouts over 27 innings in seven career starts at Citizens Bank Park.

Philadelphia was swept in a three-game set with the Orioles at home earlier this week and hopes to bounce back after that disappointing showing. The Phillies entered Friday in the basement of the NL East, four games behind the Marlins for the top spot in the division. Aaron Nola is on the mound for his fourth start of the season for the Phillies in this contest. He comes in 1-1 with a 2.79 ERA, a 0.621 WHIP, two walks and 29 strikeouts over 19.1 innings of work this season. He is 7-1 with a 3.13 ERA, a 1.094 WHIP, 26 walks and 89 strikeouts over 77.2 innings of work against the Mets. He is 31-17 with a 3.02 ERA, a 1.103 WHIP, 125 walks and 507 strikeouts over 428.2 innings in 68 career starts at Citizens Bank Park
Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 Saturday games & Phillies are 13-3 in Nola's last 16 starts as a home favorite of -151 to -200


The Phillies won Game 1 by a score of 5-4. and they should be in good shape with their ace on the mound in Game 2 versus the Mets.

Aaron Nola (1-1, 2.79 ERA) has allowed two runs on five hits, striking out 22 over 14 innings in his last two starts. He's 1-0 with a 2.63 ERA in his last four starts versus the Mets.

New York will hand the ball to Steven Matz, who is 0-3 with an 8.20 ERA so far. He was 1-2 with a 14.46 ERA in three starts in Philly last year.

The Mets are batting a combined .215 with 56 strikeouts and just 36 hits over 165 at bats versus Nola.

Larry Ness: Larry's MLB "Best Bet" Division Dominator

The Philadelphia Phillies are just 6-9 to open the current season but are just FOUR games out of first place in the NL East. The Braves, who won the division in both 2018 and 2019, are struggling with injuries and are only 11-10, leaving the surprising 9-4 Marlins atop the division. The Phillies 'limped' into their three-game weekend series at home against the Mets off a three-game sweep at the hands of the Baltimore Orioles. However, Bryce Harper singled home Roman Quinn in the bottom of the ninth inning to give Philly a dramatic 6-5 win last night. The Mets have pretty much been 'stuck in neutral,' as after 21 games they are just 9-12 (5-5 their last 10).

Taking the mound in this middle contest of the three-game set will be Steven Matz (0-3, 8.20 ERA) for New York and Aaron Nola (1-1, 2.79 ERA) for Philadelphia. Matz was 11-10 with a 4.21 ERA last season but 'the skinny' was he was AWFUL away from home (3-8 with a 6.62 ERA and .293 BAA) but terrific at Citi Field (8-2 with a 2.31 ERA and .230 BAA). However, in three home starts this season, he's allowed 12 ERs on 18 hits (including SIX homers!) in just 15.2 innings for a 6.89 ERA. He's made just one road start and it was 'ugly,' as he allowed five ERs on seven hits over three innings. It hardly inspires confidence that he's 2-4 with a 5.56 ERA in six career starts vs the Phillies (Mets are 4-6).

Nola is considered Philly's 'ace.' He had a shaky 2020 debut, losing 5-2 to Miami, when he allowed four ERs on five hits over 5.1 innings. However, in his two starts since, he's allowed just two runs (two solo HRs) on five hits over 14 innings (that's a 1.29 ERA). However, the more impressive stat is that he owns a 22-1 KW ratio in his last two starts and adding in his poor 2020 debut (but a 7-1 KW ratio), Nola has 29 Ks against just two walks on the season. Throw in the fact that he's 7-1 with a 3.13 ERA in 13 career starts vs the Mets (Phils are 9-4) and Nola over Matz is the logical play. Now, let's win it!

Marc Lawrence: (10* MLB GOW) Marc Lawrence 10* MLB Game Of The Week!

Edges - Phillies: Nola 3-0 career team-starts versus Mets with Matz; and Nola 9-3 last twelve team-starts versus the Mets; and Nola 5-2 home career team-starts versus the Mets … Mets: Matz 1-7 away career team-starts versus Phillies. With Nola in great KW form with 29 Ks and 2 BBs in his last three starts, and Matz sporting an 8.20 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP this season.

Will Rogers: ***+$18K BIG TICKET MLB!*** 10* 'PLAY-BOOK!'

The set-up: The Phillies won 6-5 yesterday and with the vastly superior starting pitcher on the mound Saturday afternoon, I look for them to find a way to get the job done here as well. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Steven Matz (0-3, 8.20 ERA), who was most recently crushed by the Nationals on Monday, allowing eight runs off eight hits, including three dingers, over only 4.1 frames of work. So far Matz has been shelled for 13 runs and five home runs over 7.1 innings.

The pick: Philadelphia counters with ace Aaron Nola (1-1, 2.79) who allowed one run off two hits with a walk while striking out ten over eight innings in a victory over Atlanta on Monday. Nola continues to dominate, entering with a sharp 27:2 K:BB over 19.1 innings of work this year. With a chance to extend his Cy Young candidate season in front of the home town crowd and in this favorable matchup, I'm going to lay the price and expect a big time blowout from start to finish.



Best of luck!

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