MLB Free Picks

While I won with the 'under' in yesterday's game, I'm expecting to see some more offense this evening. Yesterday, I said this of the KC starter: "Minor was sharp last time out, as he allowed just one earned run through six complete. Last time that he faced the White Sox, he allowed only two hits and one run, through seven complete." I also said this about the Chicago starter: "Keuchel had a bad start on 7/3, which had an effect on his recent numbers. However, he's since allowed just three runs in his next two starts combined. In fact, he's allowed three or fewer runs in seven of his past nine starts, four in one of the others. He's allowed two or fewer earned runs in five of his past seven. It should also be mentioned that Keuchel's last four starts against KC have all fallen below the number." Things set up differently today. KC starter Keller has an ugly 7.19 ERA, in nine home starts, to go along with a 1.645 WHIP. Meanwhile, Chicago starter Cease has a 6.28 ERA (1.479 WHIP) in 10 road starts. Not surprisingly, the 'over' is 7-2-1 in those games. I see this one reaching double digits.

WHITE HOT Ben Burns got the new week started with a 2-0 Monday. He's now a FANTASTIC 46-26 for the month, an AWESOME 128-77 since the start of June. Even better, Ben's baseball is a BLISTERING 289-161 (+$52K) since last season. You already know that his "top rated" MLB totals are M-O-N-E-Y. Hurry and get down on his latest. It goes today!

Ricky's 1* play on Seattle RL.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- The Astros are 1-4 in the last five meetings in Seattle.

- The Mariners are 20-8 in their last 28 games as an underdog.

- The Mariners are 4-0 in their last four games as a home underdog.

Verdict: The Mariners look good as a home dog here.

My free play is on the Tex Rangers at 8:05 ET.

The Texas Rangers are currently on a 12-game losing streak, just three games away from matching the worst in franchise history (a 15-game losing streak back in 1972). However, the Rangers have some competition for "worst team in the AL," as the Baltimore Orioles sit 34-64. Texas has been outscored 80-20 during the streak and has been blanked three times and scored just one run in four other games. Sunday's 3-1 loss to the Houston Astros marked the end to an 0-10 road trip. Texas opens a nine-game homestand Tuesday night when it welcomes the Arizona Diamondback to Globe Life Field for the first contest of a brief two-game IL series. Unlike Texas, Arizona has NO competition as the NL's worst team, as the 31-70 D'backs are EIGHT games behind the 38-61 Pittsburgh Pirates, who own the NL's second-worst record. In fact, Arizona owns an unwanted MLB 'triple crown' as the D'backs not only own MLB's worst overall record but they also own MLB's worst money line mark at minus-$3,252 (over $1,000 more than any other team) plus own MLB's worst run-differential at minus-150 runs.

The starting pitchers for Tuesday will be Arizona's Taylor Widener (1-0, 3.55 ERA) and for Texas it will be Dane Dunning (3-7, 4.30 ERA). Widener made 12 appearances in 2020 (all in relief), going 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in just 20 innings. He's still considered a rookie in 2021, as he takes the mound for his eighth start. Widener has been back-and-forth between the majors and minors this season and also spent some time on the 10-day injured list, after sustaining a right groin strain against the Colorado Rockies back on May 23. He picked up his lone win in his 2021 season debut (way back on April 4 in a 3-1 win at San Diego in which he pitched six scoreless innings) but enters on a streak of six consecutive no-decisions (Arizona is 3-3). Dane Dunning (3-7, 4.30 ERA) pitched just 34 innings in 2020, although unlike Widener, made seven starts (2-0 with a 3.97 ERA). This marks his 19th start of 2021 for Texas (team is just 5-13 in his starts) but only his second since July 6. It should be noted that after the Rangers went 2-12 in his first 14 starts, the team had won his last three, with Dunning posting a 1.93 ERA. However, on June 20, he allowed three ERs over 4.2 innings in a 4-1 loss at Detroit.

Ain't it about time for Texas to break through with a win? The Diamondbacks have had a DREADFUL 2021. They have suffered a franchise-high 17-game losing streak and another stretch of 13 consecutive defeats during a season in which they got off to a 15-13 start, before losing 50 of their next 58 games. Arizona set a major league record with 24 consecutive road losses from May 4 through June 25 and comes to Texas 12-40 in road games on the season. C'mon Rangers! If not here, when?

Good luck...Larry

Machine value grade B

Seattle Mariners are 21-7-0 As Underdog since 2021 June 12 with a profit of +22 units
Seattle Mariners are 31-19-0 In Level 2 of Sport League Breakdown since 2021 May 27 with a profit of +20 units
Seattle Mariners are 31-19-0 In Level 1 of Sport League Breakdown since 2021 May 27 with a profit of +20 units

Machine value grade B

Oakland Athletics are 23-11-1 Over/Under Line Larger than current total 2.36000 since 2021 March 18 with a profit of +13 units
Oakland Athletics are 25-22-1 Moneyline Line within +/-10% of current moneyline +2.36000 since 2020 February 22 with a profit of +12 units
Oakland Athletics are 24-22-0 Moneyline within +/-5% of current moneyline +2.36000 since 2019 May 10 with a profit of +11 units

This is a FREE play (1*) on CHICAGO

Though the Royals are on a six-game win streak and the White Sox are the definition of mediocre on the road (24-24 record), we expect the latter to avenge last night's 4-3 loss. As a -125 to -175 favorite, Chicago is 12-5 on the road. Brad Keller is hardly having what you'd call a "good year" for Kansas City. His ERA at home is 7.19 and his WHIP is 1.65. Those are bad numbers. Recently, Keller has been a bit better. But we view that as a mirage. Dylan Cease, who has been more good than bad for Chicago, should outduel him here. Cease has allowed no more than three runs in six of his last eight appearances. The White Sox are 27-15 off a loss. Play on CHICAGO

AAA

1* Over Nationals/Phillies (7:05 ET): It was in this very space that I recommended the Under for yesterday's Nationals-Phillies series opener. That recommendation was looking good - until the 9th inning. Washington had scored all four of its runs in the fourth while all three Philadelphia runs had come in the sixth. The Nats tacked on what looked to be an "insurance run" in the top of the ninth (to make it 5-3), but the game was still on track to stay Under (number was 9.5). Unfortunately, in the bottom of the ninth, Andrew McCutchen won the game with a walkoff 3-run HR. 

The Nationals are in a really bad way right now as they've dropped five straight and 11 of their last 14. I don't necessarily expect them to turn things around on the road where they are just 18-29 this season. But I do think they're going to score more runs tonight. That's because they are facing Matt Moore, who has an 8.27 ERA and 1.96 WHIP at home. Moore has seen the Over go 6-1-1 in his eight starts this season. Note that the Phillies bullpen is taxed after being called in early last night.

The problem for Washington here is that Eric Fedde is on the hill. They are 0-4 his last four starts. Fedde was good his last time out, but had surrendered six runs in two of his previous three starts. He also gave up five runs here in Philadelphia back on 6/23. He has a 5.77 ERA in 10 career starts vs. the Phils including 8.00 in a pair this year. I know that it's an "about face" from yesterday, but today's starting pitching matchup demands it. 1* Over Nationals/Phillies

Marlins (Alcantara) vs. Baltimore (Watkins)

Two skilled starters. The low-offense Marlins. The struggling Orioles. Decent relievers on both teams of late. A relatively high total. Sounds like a recipe for a low scoring affair.

Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #970 Tuesday Free Pick UNDER the total in Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros @ 10:10 ET - Yesterday's game was a crazy 11-8 Mariners win. Prior to this game, 5 of Seattle's 6 preceding games had resulted in an under. McCullers starts for Houston here and he is 5-0 with a 2.66 ERA on the road this season. Flexen starts for Seattle here and he is 6-3 with a 1.89 ERA at home this season. Free Pick UNDER the total in Seattle