Marc Lawrence @Covers_Experts
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|Feb 20||Push||NCAAB||Northern Illinois||0|
|Feb 20||L||NCAAB||Texas A&M||-770|
Trending... NBA Teams At The All-Star Break
Feb 19, 2018
You’ll never guess which team in the NBA is10-0 ATS when coming off consecutive wins this season. With that and with the NBA taking a timeout for the All-Star break, there is no better time than the present to examine the condition of each team in the league at this stage of the season. From the surprise teams to the disappointments, the run to the 2018 playoffs is about to take off.
Super Bowl MVP QB Curse
Feb 1, 2018
When it comes to the biggest game the NFL has to offer, our well-oiled database confirms the fact that MVP winning quarterbacks have struggled in the big game since the inception of the Super Bowl in 1967.
Jan 13, 2018
With the college basketball season now in full conference swing, let’s examine a handicapping theory that yields a much better return on your investment than the banks do these days. It deals with teams playing back-to-back days without rest during the regular season. In particular, Ivy League games noted for playing back-to-back contests on Friday and Saturday nights.
Age: 68 – or closer to 50 than 90
Years in handicapping: I began handicapping professionally in 1975. Developed a love for the profession as a student in high school, where I met my beautiful wife and have been happily married since.
Achievements in handicapping: Through countless hours of hard work, determination, and my trusted database, I’ve been fortunate enough to win more documented Top 10 Handicapping Achievement Awards than anyone in the nation (over 500). More recent accomplishments include 8 winning seasons in last 9 years combined on the NFL and College Football gridiron (suffered first losing season in nine years in 2016). As a result I also had a string of 10 consecutive winning seasons in the NFL snapped last year as well. In addition I established an NFL season-long record going 28-9 during the 2014 regular season campaign as documented by the Sports Monitor in Oklahoma. Other top achievements include winning the 2008 Playbook Football Wise Guys Contest and the No.1 ranking in NFL Win Percentage in 2008 (by SPORTS WATCH in Las Vegas), Playbook Football Wise Guys Contest Best Bet Champion in 2007, No.1 ranking NFL Win Percentage (by SPORTS MONITOR in Oklahoma City) in 2006, and No. 1 ranking in College Football in 2005 (by SPORTS MONITOR in Oklahoma). I was also fortunate enough to win the prestigious STARDUST INVITATIONAL FOOTBALL CONTEST in 2005. In addition, I was named HANDICAPPER OF THE YEAR in 2005 by FOOTBALL NEWS. Reached the semifinals of the 2006 LEROYS MONEY TALKS CONTEST and the quarterfinals of the 2007 LEROYS MONEY TALKS CONTEST. I also managed to establish a personal best 16-game win streak in MLB on the Covers site prior to the 2011 All-Star break.
Biggest win of the year: It would have been really difficult topping our 10* College Football Game Of The Year play on Michigan State (+16.5) over Ohio State, and our 10* NFL Game Of The Year selection on Atlanta (+7) over Carolina - both straight-up underdog winners – in 2015. But last year’s * Game Of The Month winning call on Auburn (+3), another straight up winner over LSU, ultimately lead to the firing of head coach Les Miles while exposing the Bengals as a pretender rather than a contender.
Biggest loss of the year: As rewarding as our call on Auburn was it was difficult watch our 10* Bowl call on Washington go down against Alabama. The Huskies, a 14.5-point underdog, lost by 17 points despite holding the Tide to a season low 326 yards. Ouch.
Why you like Covers Experts: Knowing that handicapping is an accumulation of edges, I find great statistical resources provided on the site to be a huge factor when it comes to gathering pertinent data. In addition, reading articles and ‘Steamwire’ releases from other ‘Experts’ helps to put as many sound, logical edges in your favor as possible. Hands down it is a tremendous handicapping tool.
Favorite page to use on Covers.com: I find myself gravitating mostly to the ‘Statistics’ reports provided daily within each sport. Whether it’s statistics, stories, injuries, box scores or anything handicapping-related, I know I can find it on the site. We’re only as smart as the amount of solid information we gather.
Systems used for handicapping: I write a weekly NFL column for the USA TODAY Sports Weekly and have authored thousands of articles, while illuminating on the fact that three primary forms of sports handicapping exist. Those are Fundamental, Statistical and Technical. To be a successful handicapper one must be a well-rounded handicapper, meaning it’s critically important to blend all three forms into the handicapping equation. I rely heavily on a powerful database that allows me to query scores, stat and results of games played since 1980 in College and Pro Football, along with College and Pro Basketball. By being able to identify and recreate identical situations, and checking them against the database, I have come to rely on similar results created by this technical ‘cause and effect’. It’s like Winston Churchill once said, “The farther back you can look the farther forward you can see.” Applying these findings to statistical and fundamental matchups makes for a solid handicap. By applying ‘value’ to the handicap we learn to win in the long run. And winning, in the long run, is what it’s all about.
Game Ratings: I rate my games on a weighted star (*) basis. They include: 1* - leans, reserved primarily for free or opinion plays. 3* - medium premium selection plays, 4* - strong premium selection plays, 5* - very strong selection plays, 7* Top Key Plays, and 10* - extremely strong Top Most Valuable Plays (MVP). Please play accordingly... and good luck, as always.
Favorite team to wager on or against: Fatal mistakes are made by players who fall in love with a certain team(s). The bottom line is they are all ‘machines’ and our job as handicappers is to identify those that are well oiled and hitting on all cylinders, and conversely those who are not. My primary focus is isolating on winning teams in underdog situations that have a good chance of winning the game in straight-up fashion. If they do, you win. If they don’t, but play well, you still win. If they do neither, you lose. I like those kinds of odds. Hence, I live by the ‘Woody Hayes’ theory of handicapping. Hayes’ contention was that when you pass the ball, three things can happen and two of them are bad. When it comes to handicapping sporting events, three things can happen when you bet on a favorite, and two of them are bad. Conversely, three things can happen when you bet on a dog, and two of them are good. Think about that the next time you’re convinced a favorite can’t lose.
Team you avoid when wagering: I look to avoid high priced favorites, especially those with weak defenses. In the same regard, I will avoid playing losing teams that are favored against winning opponents because losing teams find ways to lose, while winning teams find ways to win.
Sports, conferences and divisions the service excels at handicapping: Over the years I have come to realize that results will vary from sport to sport and season-to-season. Because of my experience and my powerful database, I have learned it’s important to keep an accurate pulse on what is working and what is not. As a result, I have been fortunate to have enjoyed success on all levels.
Quote: Nothing, absolutely nothing, overcomes dedication, experience, hard work and information. Together they help one make informed decisions. When it comes to Sports Handicapping I am truly one of the hardest working professionals in the industry. Because of my desire to be the very best handicapper I can possibly be, I continue to burn the midnight oil working 12-14 hours a day, 7 days a week. The last time I took a vacation was on my 25th wedding anniversary over 20 years ago. I’ve learned over the years that the harder I work, the luckier I get… and I’m a real lucky guy.
Remember: there is no greater feeling when you wake up each morning and the first thought to cross your mind is, "I'm a winner!"
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