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1* 1st Half Under Mavericks/Warriors (9:00 ET): Please note this is a recommendation for the first half only. So far, only one of the four games in this series have exceeded this 1H number. That was Game 2 when the Mavs put up 72 points before the break. Off their hot shooting in Game 4, I don't expect to see anything close to that happen again.
As you may know, the 1H total for Game 4 came right down to the wire with teams combining for 109 points and not scoring in the final 90 seconds. I think most people's knee-jerk reaction for the 1H here will be to bet the Over, but again, Dallas isn't going to be as sharp from three-point range as they were on Tuesday.
Games 1 and 3 saw fewer than 100 total points scored in the first half. Dallas played at the slowest pace in the league during the regular season and has continued to do so in the playoffs. Their role players are not going to shoot the ball the way they did in the last game. Golden State's pace is also down in the playoffs. They've been held under 50 pts in the 1H each of the L2 games. 1* 1st Half Under Mavericks/Warriors
|Under 111 1st H (-110) @ sportsinteraction|
Ricky's 1* play on Colorado.
Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the history of these teams is quite significant.
- The Avalanche are 7-2 in their last nine playoff games as a favorite.
- The Blues are 2-5 in their last seven home games.
- The Blues are 4-10 in their last 14 playoff games as an underdog.
Verdict: The Avs blew a 3-0 lead in Game 5, but don't expect that to happen here in Game 6.
|COL (-162) @ pinnacle|
A pair of lefties square off when the Yankees meet the home-town Rays in the series opener. The Yankees are a good road team and a small favorite today. NY has a definite edge on offense, particularly in power. The Yankees have a league-leading 62 home runs compared to the Rays’ 46.
Cortez (1.80 ERA) starts for NY today. With 7 starts and 51 strikeouts, he has been one of the league’s toughest left-handers. He gave up 3 runs in is last start, but has otherwise been superlative.
Yarbrough (4.20 ERA) has just four appearances of short duration this season. He has been hit hard, to the tune of .295 this season, but has given up just 2 runs in his last 3 appearances.
The Rays are very good at managing pitching and have their usually solid bullpen to back up Yarbrough. One concern for the Yankees is that their usually excellent bullpen has struggled lately.
Yarbrough’s hits-allowed stats are concerning, especially when facing the Yankees. The Rays have an inate ability to win when I wager on them, but I am on the side of the favorite today. I expect another fine and long outing from Cortez, while the NY offense gives him all the run support he needs. Take the Yankees to win.
|-1.5 NYY (134) @ Fanduel|
My free play is on the LA Angels at 9:38 ET.
The Blue Jays missed a wild card spot by ONE game in 2021 but were a 'sexy' preseason pick to best the Rays, Red Sox and Yankees in the brutally tough AL East in 2022. The Angels are coming off a 77-85 season and the franchise's only World Series title came back in 2002. I'm sure it seems like even more than two decades ago to Angel fans, as the team has missed the postseason 11 times in the last 12 years (got swept 3-0 in a 2014 ALDS in its lone appearance in that span). However, as Toronto opens a four-game series in Anaheim against the Angels on Thursday, the Blue Jays are just 23-20, 7 1/2-games behind the NY Yankees in the AL East. Meanwhile, the Angels check in at 27-18, just TWO games behind the Astros in the AL West.
Hyun Jin Ryu (1-0, 6.00 ERA) will make his fifth start of the season for the Blue Jays. Ryu missed a month because of a sore left forearm, but he has eased concerns in the two starts since his return, allowing just one run in 10.2 innings. He is coming off his best start and his only victory of 2022, when he threw six scoreless innings against the Cincinnati Reds on Friday in a 2-1 win. Shohei Ohtani, LA's two-way superstar, is 3-2 with a 2.82 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in seven starts (Angels are just 3-4). Ohtani seems to have regained velocity on his fastball that dipped a little a couple starts ago. I realize his pitching stats are below expectations but note that he still owns a 53-9 KW ratio and opponents are batting just .205 against him. Ryu's status is still unclear and it's important to note that while Toronto owns a minus-7 run differential, the Angels own a plus-48 differential, second in the AL to only the Yankees (plus-68). Take Ohtani and the Angels!
We're getting a "plus money" return on the Under 6.5 goal option. I feel that's providing us with very fair value. The Flames, who allow only 2.4 goals per game at home, have seen the 'under; go 11-5-2 the past 18 times that they were off three or more consecutive losses. The last time that they were off three straight losses, the Flames' next game was a 3-2 final. Don't be surprised if this one also proves lower-scoring than some might be expecting. Consider the Under.
|Under 6.5 (109) @ pinnacle|
1* FREE PLAY RED SOX.
Yesterday I gave out a play on the White Sox. I advised laying the chalk, and Chicago came away with the 3-1 victory. On Thursday though I think the value has swung the other way. I like Michael Wacha in this matchup. The Red Sox were on a 6-game win streak which saw them plate 54 runs, but yesterday it left 12 runners stranded and went just 1-for-9 with men in scoring position. Wacha though is 3-0 with a 1.76 ERA this year. Keuchel is 2-4 with a 6.60 ERA this season. Look for Boston to get back on track at the plate and for Wacha to take care of the rest. Consider the Red Sox on Thursday night!
|BOS (-106) @ pinnacle|
1* FREE PLAY OVER.
This has been an interesting series. The first 2 games stayed well "under" the number, but the last 3 have easily blasted past the posted number and in my opinion, Game 6 has all the makings of another high-scoring "shootout." The Blues stayed alive with the 5-4 OT road victory and now head home to face the high-flying and revenge-minded Avs, who have in fact seen the total go "over" the number in 7 of their last 10 in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which they conceded 5 or more goals in. With Colorado desperate to end this series on Friday night, we can expect the visitors to push the pace from start to finish. Faster pace = more shots and more shots = more goals. Consider the "over" in this one.
|Over 6.5 (-115) @ pinnacle|
Play - Texas Rangers w/Perez vs. Montas (Game 921).
Edges - Rangers: Perez 3-0 with 0.00 ERA and 0.91 WHIP away this season; and 7-0 last 7 team-starts in May … Athletics: Montas 0-3 last three team-starts versus the Pinstripes; and 0-7 last 7 team-starts in May … With that, we recommend a 1* play on Texas. Thank you and good luck as always.
> Marc’s MLB Top Of The Ticket Play on Thursday night’s card is locked and loaded with terrific winning situations inside the game. Step up to the plate and knock your man out of the park this beauty now!
Machine value grade B
Washington Nationals picks are 14-15-1 when the money line odds are lower than the current money line odds since 2021-09-21 with a profit of +5 units
Washington Nationals picks are 5-4-0 when after a game total under result as an underdog since 2022-04-29 with a profit of +4 units
Washington Nationals picks are 5-4-0 when after a game total under result since 2022-04-29 with a profit of +4 units
Thursday NHL Free play. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Carolina at 7 pm et on Thursday.
We've already cashed three 'under' tickets in this series (all four games have stayed 'under' the total) and I won't hesitate to go back to the well in Game 5 on Thursday. Game 4 was actually the highest-scoring in the series to date and that's saying something considering it was a 4-1 contest in favor of the Rangers. Carolina has now been held to three goals or less in six straight games while the Rangers four-goal outburst ended a stretch that saw them find the back of the net just four times in a three-game stretch. Both goaltenders are at the top of their game right now, making one incredible save after another and now with the series locked at two games apiece, there's no reason to think the floodgates will suddenly open. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 12-4 with the Canes playing at home after losing by 2+ goals against a division opponent in their last game over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 21-7 with the Rangers coming off a game in which they allowed one goal or less this season. Take the under.
Thursday NBA Free play. My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Golden State at 9 pm et on Thursday.
We saw a high-scoring affair in Game 4 of this series two nights ago but I look for a different story to unfold as the scene shifts to San Francisco for Game 5 on Thursday. The pace hasn't been all that fast in this series, with neither team getting off more than 86 field goal attempts in a game. In fact, Dallas has been held to 78, 75 and 82 field goal attempts over its last three contests. The biggest problem for the Mavs has been their inability to prevent the Warriors from making the most of their somewhat limited scoring opportunities (note that Golden State has 84 or fewer field goals in all four games in this series after hoisting up 90+ in four of six games against Memphis last round). Facing elimination for a second straight game, we are likely to see Dallas do everything it can to slow Golden State here. Note that the 'under' is an exceptional 49-26 with the Mavs checking in as an underdog over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 213.1 points. The 'under' is also 42-27 with Golden State coming off a road loss over the last three seasons. Take the under.
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