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WOLFS
| Pick |
|---|
| Borussia (122) @ pinnacle |
1* Borussia Dortmund (9:30 AM ET): This sets up as a huge battle in the Bundesliga on matchday 31 as third place Wolfsburg hosts fifth place Borussia Dortmund. Five points are all that separates these two clubs. Wolfsburg's chances of qualifying for next season's Champions League obviously seem a lot more secure right now, but with the way Dortmund has been playing of late, this is going to be a very interesting race.
Expected goals is a metric that has taken hold of "The Beautiful Game" in recent years and is used to more properly evaluate team and player performance. In this regard, Dortmund's last two victories - 4-1 over Werder Bremen and 2-0 over Union Berlin - are even more dominant than they appear. Based on their performance Wednesday, Dortumund had an expected goal total of SIX, which is about as high as I've ever seen. I took them against Union Berlin and really it should have ended up being more lopsided than 2-0. Dortmund really dominated possession and had so many scoring chances in the match.
Erling Haaland in particular was off target on multiple occasions when you'd normally expect him to find the back of the net. Coming off that performance, look for Haaland and Dortmund to cash in with greater frequency here against a Wolfsburg side that has conceded eight times in their last three fixtures. This is a big game on Saturday and Dortmund has more experience in those. They won the reverse fixture 2-0 back in early January and I look for them to come out ahead in this one as well. 1* Borussia Dortmund
AUGS
| Pick |
|---|
| Over 2.5 (120) @ bet365 |
Augsburg have not won a game in their last 3, and have not scored a goal in that span either. Only 1 of those was at home and they did not lose. Despite coming away with a 0-0 draw in their last home match, the 2 games before that they scored 2 and 3 respectively. When at home, Augsburg can score goals and play well. Koln, on the other hand, are in trouble as they sit in a relegation spot and are 4 points from the safe team with only 4 games left in the season. They have to play with urgency and they should have a lot of confidence as they are coming off of a 2-1 victory to RB Leipzig, one of the elite teams in Germany. This game should see some goals from both sides so there is a ton of value on the over as both teams will be pushing the attack.
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