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My free play is on the Twins at 10:10 ET.
The Minnesota Twins entered the current season off winning back-to-back AL Central titles but even though it's just mid-June, it's probably safe to say that there will be NO division crown for the Twins in 2021. Minnesota opens a six-game road trip this coming week with the first of three against the Mariners tonight in Seattle. The Twins 'limp' in at 26-39, tied with the Tigers for last-place in the AL Central and already a whopping 15 games back of the first-place Chicago White Sox. Seattle welcomes Minnesota to T-Mobile Park with a 32-35 record that leaves them EIGHT games back of the first-place Oakland A's in the AL West. Seattle has been around .500 most of the season, opening 11-6 but falling to 21-26 through May 23. The Mariners clawed back to 29-29 through June 3 but enters this series having lost SIX of nine. The teams met in a three-game series back in April (8-11) at Minnesota with the Mariners taking two of the three
The Monday pitching matchup features Kenta Maeda (2-2, 5.27 ERA) of Minnesota and Marco Gonzales (1-4, 5.45 ERA). Although one can't tell it by their respective 2021 record, Maeda and Gonzales are both considered to be their respective teams' aces. Maeda spent his first four seasons with the Dodgers but was traded to Minnesota in February of 2020. Maeda was terrific in 2020, going 6-1 in 11 starts (Twins were 8-3). He posted a 2.70 ERA, 0.75 WHIP and opponents batted just .168 against him. He was the American League’s Cy Young Award runner-up. However, in NINE starts here in 2021 (Twins are 2-7), not only has Maeda's ERA just about doubled from 2020 but so has his WHIP (1.48) plus his BAA (.299) is up .131 points! Gonzales has a similar 'tale of woe,' having gone 36-24 (.600) for Seattle from 2018-2020 with a 3.85 ERA, before seeing his ERA jump by 1.60 in seven starts (Seattle is 2-5) in 2021.
Both pitchers have dealt win injuries, as Maeda was placed on the injured list on May 23 with a right adductor strain, while also experiencing some arm soreness that kept him sidelined. After a one-start rehab assignment on Wednesday in St Paul (he allowed just one hit-a HR-in his four-innings), Maeda is finally set to make his return to the rotation on Monday. As for Gonzales, a left forearm strain has sidelined him for all of May and in two starts in June, he lasted four innings in each. Since his last win (April 15), he's 0-3 (team is 0-4) but owns a respectable 3.42 ERA.
However, it hardly inspires confidence that Gonzales is 0-2 with an 11.58 ERA and 2.25 WHIP in two career starts against Minnesota, which ranks 2nd in MLB with 95 HRs. This marks Maeda's first start vs Seattle and the 2021 edition of the Mariners owns MLB's lowest team BA (.209) and ranks 29th (out 30 teams) in OPS at .652. Let's play Maeda and the Twins
|MIN (-129) @ Draftkings|
Ricky's 1* play on Seattle RL.
Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.
- The Mariners are 5-2 in their last seven games as a home underdog.
- The Mariners are 35-17 in their last 52 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
- The Twins are 1-9 in their last 10 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Verdict: The Mariners look good as a home underdog.
|1.5 SEA (-142) @ pinnacle|
Machine value grade B
Philadelphia Phillies are 23-14-2 Over/Under Line Larger than current total 1.50000 since 2020 February 27 with a profit of +11 units
Philadelphia Phillies are 13-4-0 Moneyline within +/-5% of current moneyline +1.50000 since 2019 June 18 with a profit of +8 units
Philadelphia Phillies are 17-7-3 As Underdog since 2021 April 10 with a profit of +6 units
|1.5 PHI (-126) @ pinnacle|
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