CFB Week 9 Betting Notes

Here I compare power ratings from Vegas oddsmakers, Sagarin, Bill Connelly's SP+, and others when needed....and create what I feel to be a 'fair' betting line.

 

LINE VALUE

Lines that appear to be 'off' the most:
* teams listed are where the (perceived) value lies...note I adjusted for injuries (Bama,Cal etc)

4/5 points off

TEXAS !
Houston
B College

3/4 off

Cal
S Ala
ALABAMA !
Kan St
Maryland

2/3 off

USC
B Green
NW
Cuse
S Miss
WKU
Hawaii
Kentucky
Penn St
Texas Tech
Ark St

2 or so off

Troy....Temple...EC...Indiana...C Mich...La Tech...Michigan

 

OL= off loss
OW= off win
RD= road dog

+/- ATS = how much a team has covered / not covered (Army -46 L4 > missed cover last 4 games by 46 pts)
OFY= out for year
HC= homecoming


THURSDAY 10/24

103 SMU -10
7:30 p.m. ESPN
104 HOUSTON
H- QB ?

The current line of 13'-14 is based on Houston's weak game vs UConn,perceptions of team 'quitting on season', and the Ponies strong game vs Temple. Now starting QB for Cougs (Clayton Tune) also has been injured (hamstring), for most of North Texas game and missed UConn entirely. This creates an additional huge unknown, as backup (coaches son), is not nearly as good. This is a great game to stay away from, but if you MUST it's gotta be SMU or nothing IMO. Maybe best to play in-game or halftime, as we will know QUICKLY if Cougs are ready to play.

 

FRIDAY 10/25

105 USC -10'
9:00 p.m. ESPN2
106 COLORADO
U- Ducks next / 15/20 P12 road UNDER

 I hate playing against a home dog getting 10+ (even Houston), but here considering how BAD the Buff D is playing...it must be Trojans or nothing. 

 

SATURDAY 10/26


107 CONNECTICUT -9
3:30 p.m.
108 MASSACHUSETTS
STAY AWAY !!!

109 ILLINOIS
12:00 p.m.
110 PURDUE -10
P- WR Moore D

111 SAN JOSE ST
12:00 p.m. CBSC
112 ARMY -8'
A- -46 ATS L4 / @ AT next

113 TROY -1'
7:00 p.m.
114 GEORGIA ST
GS- after bye +37 ATS

115 BOSTON COLLEGE
7:30 p.m. HC
116 CLEMSON -28

117 MEMPHIS -10
7:00 p.m.
118 TULSA

119 EASTERN MICHIGAN
3:30 p.m.
120 TOLEDO -3
T- CHECK QB Guadagni status (HUGE)
EM- QB Glass ? but bu fine

121 MISSISSIPPI ST
12:00 p.m.
122 TEXAS A&M -9'
M- lost 3/row
A- @ UTSA next

123 CENTRAL FLORIDA -8'
7:00 p.m.
124 TEMPLE
T- 10-2 OL / 19-6 dog

125 BOWLING GREEN
12:00 p.m.
126 WESTERN MICHIGAN -24
WM- Ball St next

127 INDIANA
3:30 p.m.
128 NEBRASKA P
* both QB's ?
N- OL > bye / @ Purdue
I- @ Terps / NW

129 CENTRAL MICHIGAN
3:30 p.m.
130 BUFFALO -1'
CM- cov last 6 by 85 points!

131 IOWA -8'
12:00 p.m.
132 NORTHWESTERN
$$ SU winner 14-0 ATS!
NW- 16-7 dog / 13-6 OL
I- bye next > Wisky

133 USF
3:45 p.m. HC
134 EAST CAROLINA P
EC- +29 ATS L3
USF- @ Navy/bye...QB OFY

135 SYRACUSE
3:30 p.m. HC
136 FLORIDA ST -9
S- Pitt L/BC...QB?
F- @WK / MIA

137 LIBERTY -8'
12:00 p.m.
138 RUTGERS
$ auto-fade Rutgers?
(-85 pts L6/ @ Illinois)

139 SOUTHERN MISS -12
1:00 p.m.
140 RICE
R- 0-7 SU / Herd
SM- LT L / UAB

141 CALIFORNIA
10:00 p.m.
142 UTAH -18
C-1st 2 QB's out / 8-0 RD
U- QB ? / @ Wash next

143 NEVADA
2:00 p.m.
144 WYOMING -12'
W- bye next

145 UTAH ST
10:15 p.m.
146 AIR FORCE -5
AF- +42 ATS L2 off Navy loss / @ Hawaii / ARMY

147 HAWAII -13
4:00 p.m.
148 NEW MEXICO

149 WESTERN KENTUCKY
2:30 p.m.
150 MARSHALL -2'
* WKU 5-0 series

151 ARIZONA
3:30 p.m.
152 STANFORD -2'
S- OL + rest / BYE
A- @USC / Oreg St HC
* check TREE QB's !!! > #3 terrible

153 WASHINGTON ST
10:30 p.m.
154 OREGON -13'
O- Big road W / @USC - 4-18 OW !
W- Col / BYE - cov 9/row in series

155 COLORADO ST
7:30 p.m. HC
156 FRESNO ST -16
C- BYE / UNLV
F- UNLV / @ Haw

157 MISSOURI -7
7:30 p.m.
158 KENTUCKY
* both bye next

159 DUKE
4:00 p.m. HC
160 NORTH CAROLINA -3
D- bad L /bye > Irish - 5-1 < bye
NC - off 6 OT loss / Virg

161 PENN ST -8
3:30 p.m.
162 MICHIGAN ST
P- @Iowa > Mich Minn
M- 2L > bye /Ill

163 MIAMI OH
3:30 p.m.
164 KENT ST -2'

165 APPALACHIAN ST -24
12:00 p.m. HC
166 SOUTH ALABAMA
A- GSouth. in 5

167 NEW MEXICO ST
3:00 p.m.
168 GEORGIA SOUTHERN -15
GS- App St in 5

169 OKLAHOMA ST
3:30 p.m.
170 IOWA ST -9
O- BU L / TCU
I- @TT / BYE > @OU > TX

171 FIU -1'
3:30 p.m. HC
172 MIDDLE TENNESSEE

173 FAU -13
3:30 p.m.
174 OLD DOMINION
F- Herd / @ WKU

175 OHIO
2:00 p.m.
176 BALL ST -1
BS- +62 L4 games
O- 1-6 ATS

177 ARKANSAS
7:00 p.m. HC
178 ALABAMA -35
Bama- > BYE > LSU / QB OUT

179 SOUTH CAROLINA -5
4:00 p.m.
180 TENNESSEE
T- 5-14 ATS at home

181 OKLAHOMA -21
12:00 p.m. HC !!
182 KANSAS ST
O- WV/BYE > Iowa St
K- TCU / @ Kan

183 MARYLAND
3:30 p.m. BIG10
184 MINNESOTA -13'

185 TULANE
3:30 p.m. CBSC
186 NAVY -2'
T- off bad loss / Tulsa HC
N- + 56 ATS L3 after Mem loss

187 TEXAS -5
3:30 p.m. HC
188 TCU
T- KU / BYE
TCU- 2L / @ Okie St
$ Frogs cov 5/22 home games

189 MIAMI, FL
12:00 p.m.
190 PITTSBURGH -5

191 VIRGINIA -4
3:30 p.m.
192 LOUISVILLE
V- Duke / @ NCaro
L- Clem / bye

193 AKRON
3:30 p.m.
194 NORTHERN ILLINOIS -25

195 TEXAS TECH -6'
7:00 p.m.
196 KANSAS
TT- loss / BYE
KU- tough RL / Kan St

197 NORTH TEXAS -5
3:30 p.m.
198 CHARLOTTE

199 WISCONSIN
12:00 p.m.
200 OHIO STATE -15
W- OL / BYE - 11-1 OL
OSU- @NW + rest / bye

201 TEXAS ST
7:00 p.m. HC
202 ARKANSAS ST -13
A- ULL home L / @ULM
T- bye / @ ULL

203 AUBURN
3:30 p.m.
204 LSU -10
A- loss > bye > @ Ark / 4 home games (last road trip!)
L- @ Miss St / BYE > Bama

205 LOUISIANA TECH -22
8:00 p.m.
206 UTEP
LT- SM W / bye
U- @FIU / @ NTX

207 NOTRE DAME
7:30 p.m.
208 MICHIGAN -2
ND- BYE / VT
M- @ Penn St / @ Terps

209 ARIZONA ST -5
7:30 p.m. HC
210 UCLA
A- loss / bye
U- @ Tree W / COL

211 SAN DIEGO ST -13
10:30 p.m. CBSC
212 UNLV
S- @ SJSU/BYE

 

BEST OF LUCK !

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