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Déjà vu? Consensus on fire yet again!

CE Manager 4 hours, 32 minutes ago
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Experts Consensus is now 16-3-1 (84%), +10,588 over the last five days and 198-124-9 (61%), +$60,303 in its last 331 plays overall. To put that into perspective, the average professional handicapper winning percentage is 54% and Experts Consensus has maintained a +60% win percentage for over five months straight.

If you are not already a subscriber or you're not buying the guaranteed picks, you're simply missing out. For a limited time only, we are discounting the Consensus Monthly to $799 [regularly $999]. Join today and get access to Covers Experts' strongest picks!

Having recently updated our criteria surrounding play releases, the revamped Experts Consensus has since raked in the profits! Haven't heard of the recent changes? Let's do a quick recap:


A minimum of three Experts must line up on the play.
There must be at least a 3:1 ratio (75%) of Experts on that side/total.
Odds and pricing restrictions in place (more details below).


Consensus plays will be priced according to how many Experts are aligned on the play, as well as special pricing on select high odds plays:

3 & 4 Experts - $60 Guaranteed/$36 Non-Guaranteed
5 Experts - $70 Guaranteed/$42 Non-Guaranteed
6 Experts - $80 Guaranteed/$48 Non-Guaranteed
7 Experts - $90 Guaranteed/ $54 Non-Guaranteed
8+ Experts - $100 Guaranteed/$60 Non-Guaranteed


All Consensus picks *released between (+115 & -115) odds will be rated 10* plays.
All Consensus picks *released between (+116 & +135) and (-116 & -135) odds will be rated 9* plays.
All Consensus picks *released between (+136 & +150) and (-136 & -150) odds will be rated 8* plays.
All Consensus picks *released at +151 odds and higher will be rated 7* plays.
All Consensus picks *released between -151 & -175 will be rated 7* plays; nothing to exceed -175.

*Odds/lines are ever changing and this is to indicate our star rating is based off the original line in which the pick is released at; and not the updated line at time of purchase or when placing your bet.

Now for a little history… this product was unveiled in February of 2014 and came in with a bang - earning +$26,890 of profit in its first calendar year!

Here at Covers Experts we are always trying to provide new and exicting ways to help you profit more and build your bankroll sky high! With the Experts Consensus we believe we have done just that. This product analyzes all the available paid Expert Picks and provides you with only those which align based on our strict selection criteria. Bet with confidence knowing the sharpest minds in the industry are backing your pick.

Cash in with the Experts Consensus today!

The Covers-Team

How Pros Attack the NFL in May

CE Manager 17 hours, 2 minutes ago
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Written by: Teddy Covers

Over the past decade, the NFL betting marketplace has evolved into a year round process. The very first Super Bowl odds for 2017 came out before the Broncos beat the Panthers in the Super Bowl this past February. CG Technology posted lines for every NFL game through the first 16 weeks of the season prior to the draft. Week 1 regular season lines are widely available right now. And the NFL Season Win Total marketplace, while still a long way from ‘maturity’, has seen a handful of key shops, like the Westgate Superbook, post virgin numbers in recent days.

My process for handicapping the upcoming NFL season begins immediately after the draft. This is the time of year to focus on those aforementioned season win totals. My NFL prep work begins each spring with a thorough look back at last year’s results.

Why look back, you ask? The answer, of course, is simple – because that’s where I find my very first edges when approaching the upcoming season. If my base power rating heading into the offseason wasn’t wholly accurate, it results in inaccurate adjustments moving forward. Part 1 of my process begins with a thorough examination of the schedules all 32 NFL teams played last year, looking for outliers. 

I’m looking to identify teams that were better than their final records would indicate, because they faced an extremely tough slate. And I’m looking for teams that were weaker than their final records would indicate because they faced an extremely easy slate. But unlike most schedule based analysis, I’m taking my time to review every game that was played through the first 16 weeks of the 2015 campaign (discounting Week 17 results due to extreme randomness).

The widely available information that helps set the markets start with last year’s results as their base point. But they don’t do it thoroughly. The conventional models simply add up the combined records of every opponent a team faced to come up with their final strength of schedule for 2015 and to create the SOS for the upcoming 2016 campaign, I’ll focus on last year’s SOS this week, and move to the 2016 SOS in Part 2 of this article next week. Creating numbers that are more accurate than the broader market for BOTH seasons are instrumental in what I’m trying to accomplish.

The aggregate numbers for last year’s strength of schedule -- the starting point for any analysis of the upcoming 2016 campaign -- can be extremely misleading. A team’s final win-loss record tells us nothing about how good they actually were at the time the game was played. There were some enormous in-season power rating shifts last year, just as there are every year. Here are some key examples off the top of my head:

Did you play the Steelers when Ben Roethlisberger was hurt and Landry Jones was behind center, or did you get the full strength Pittsburgh squad? Did you get Dallas with a healthy Tony Romo or a healthy Brandon Weeden behind center? Did you get Atlanta when they were red hot to open the season going 6-1 or did you get the Falcons when they were in free fall, losing six straight. Did you get the Colts with a healthy Andrew Luck or the Colts when Luck was out and Indy was hopeless? Did you get the Chiefs early, when they were 1-5 and their confidence was shot, or did you get them when they were the hottest team in the NFL this side of Carolina over the second half of the season? Did you face the Ravens early, or did you get them down the stretch when half the roster was on IR? What about the Redskins – did you face them when they were off to a slow start, or when they were red hot down the stretch? Did you get Cinci with a healthy Andy Dalton or with AJ McCarron at QB?

 I could go on and on but you get my point – when you played a team is every bit as important as who you played! Yet the markets devalue that concept entirely for at least two reasons – the analytics are time consuming and they require human judgement. There’s no algorhythm that will spit out accurate numbers based on judgement calls, and my process is all about making judgement calls (with some hard numbers thrown in to ensure some semblance of accuracy).

The mainstream numbers are very clear, based on the final records for every team in 2015. Those standard models will tell you that the Dolphins, Jets, Jaguars, Redskins, Panthers and Titans played the six easiest schedules in the league last year, while the Lions, Bears, Packers, Seahawks, Rams and 49ers played the six toughest slates.

So here’s what I do.  I go back to my 2015 spread sheet that details my power rating numbers on a weekly basis from last year. Then I go through the schedule, using my numbers for every squad on the week the game was played. Using that formula, you’ll get some significantly different results than the ones I listed above.

I also discount Week 17 results. Some teams had quit on their coach and their season, other teams were resting starters and other teams were playing their guts out to try to reach the postseason. Power rating models for the final week of the regular season are inherently flawed – that’s why we see enormous line moves that week every single year.

So what does my initial schedule analysis from last year show in relation to this season? My seven toughest slates for 2015 were Cleveland, Buffalo, Dallas, Washington, Pittsburgh, the New York Giants and San Francisco. Yet when you look at the Redskins aggregate numbers from last year, you’ll see the standard formula’s show that they faced one of the easiest schedules in the NFL! Therefore, you already know that I’m going to have a different perception of Washington compared to the broader markets heading into the new campaign. In addition, none of the NFC North teams that had ‘very tough’ slates by standard metrics were ‘very tough’ schedules by my metrics; teams that could be slightly overvalued as a result..

On the easy side, my numbers show that Arizona, Carolina, Jacksonville, KC, Tampa Bay and Miami faced the very easiest slates in 2015, while the New York Jets, Atlanta Falcons and Baltimore Ravens also faced much easier than average slates. All of these teams should grade out a notch or two lower than their records would indicate. 

The Arizona numbers, in particular, shocked me – I did not expect to see Bruce Arians squad as the team that faced the single weakest slate of opponents in the entire NFL last year.  In 2015, my clients and I cashed a winning bet supporting the Cardinals Over 8.5 wins. In 2016, based on this metric alone, I’ll be betting Arizona Under their win total or passing.

Next week I’ll finish the thought process, writing about the next step -- identifying accurate strength of schedule numbers for the upcoming 2016 campaign.

Scorching Hot on the Bases!

CE Manager May 2, 2016
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The MLB season is in full swing and baseball is one of those sports where both players and handicappers can fall victim to the dreaded "slow start".

Not to worry, as the Covers Experts have come out of the gates on fire and are currently riding some epic hot streaks on the diamond.

Jump on board and tail these 'sharps' right to the bank!


Marc Lawrence: 17-2 (89%) L19 MLB picks, with $11,826 earned

- 10* MLB Never Top of the Ticket Key Play


Larry Ness: 14-2 (88%) L16 MLB picks, with $11,854 earned

- MLB Las Vegas Insider

- 10* MLB Goin' Over Total


Experts Consensus: 12-2 (86%) L14 MLB picks, with $8,408 earned

- Monday 'Hit N Run' (4-0, 100%)

- Monday 'Grand Slam' (3-1, 75%)


Power Sports: 28-13 (68%) L41 MLB picks, with $8,991 earned

- 3-Game MLB Power Sweep


Steve Merril: 26-11 (70%) L37 MLB picks, with $11,284 earned

- Stay tuned for Steve's Monday MLB plays


AAA Sports: 30-19 (61%) L49 MLB picks, with $13,340 earned

- 10* MLB Game of the Week


Jesse Schule: 21-10 (68%) L31 MLB picks, with $7,780 earned

- MLB *Texas Chainsaw Massacre*


MLB Regular Season - $999
MLB Monthly - $299
Expert MLB Picks - starting at $15


A fresh slate of series are on tap today with plenty of opportunity to cash in. Enjoy the games and take it to the books!


- Covers Team

May Good Month/Bad Month Pitchers

CE Manager May 1, 2016
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By: Marc Lawrence

Horse racing fans recognize May as the month of the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes. For baseball purists May is simply the 2nd month of the 2016 MLB season.  But for die-hard baseball fans, namely those who enjoy handicapping America’s pastime, it signals our annual May Good Month/Bad Month pitchers report.

Listed below are hurlers that have enjoyed a two-to-one or better success ratio in team-starts over the course of the last three seasons during the month of May. On the flip side, we've also listed pitchers that struggle in May, winning 33% percent or less of their team-start efforts. To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each April over the last three years. And for your convenience alongside each record we break down each pitcher’s greatest success or greatest failure rate either home (H) or away (A) within his good or bad month.


Note: * designates a categorical repeat appearance by this pitcher, maintaining status quo from last season’s May list. 




De La Rosa , Jorge • 11-3 (5-1 A)

The Colorado right-hander had a rough April and will look to find his groove this month. The normally reliable right-hander has start and stop windup and still has low 90's fastball with tail action. He will need to spot pitches better and have more control with slider and changeup to match past numbers. Update - Went on 15-day DL on 4/27 with groin. 


Hernandez, Felix • 11-5 (8-3 A)

Though the "King" does not have the same velocity as a few years ago, he has more pitches he throws for strikes. Thus, he's not going to be as dominant as often, but he's making the transition away from pure power pitcher to smarter hurler to get batter out.


Hughes, Phil • 10-4 (6-1 H)

Never the ace many envisioned in his younger days with the Yankees, Hughes is a dependable starter for Minnesota, who commands low-90's fastball and spins a tight-curve. His walk-to-strikeout command is excellent but the biggest problem is staying focused inning after inning and has always been prone of losing concentration.


Porcello, Rick • 11-5 (8-1 A)

Sinker-ball pitcher who tried to become strikeout chucker with big contract in Boston last year and failed miserably. Has gone back to what he does best so far this season, which has batters beating the ball into the ground. A true No. 3 or No. 4 starter in the rotation whose not comfortable being depended on for more.


*Sale, Chris • 10-1 (5-0 A)

A true strikeout machine who, at 27, has gained the confidence to also be clubhouse leader. At 6'6 and thin, all arms and legs with funky left-side delivery, has mid to upper 90's fastball and catcher seldom has to move once target is set. Headliner of an overabundance of White Sox lefty starters. 


*Scherzer, Max • 13-4 (6-1 H)

Since the middle of last season, has been pedestrian performer, more like was with Arizona, with ERA over 4.25. Scherzer depends on clean mechanics for velocity and tilt on breaking pitches. It seems to come and go without warning. Washington is looking for the pitcher they had the first half of last year as right-hand version of Clayton Kershaw when he was unhittable. 


*Vogelsong, Ryan • 12-3 (6-1 A)

 Now with Pittsburgh, lost starting job in spring training and now works in long relief or as spot starter. Not likely to change at 38 unless injuries occur. 


*Weaver, Jered • 10-2 (6-1 H)

After shoulder issues in the spring related to tightness, which had his fastball topping out at 81-82, Weaver got stretched out and is now serviceable mid-rotation pitcher, who knows how to works counts and change speeds. Fastball still only in mid-80's but throws so many off-speed pitches his fastball is looking quicker to hitter's thus far. 


Zimmermann, Jordan • 11-5 (7-1 H)

The formers Nats pitcher took an immediate liking to the American League and went 24 1/3 innings before giving up a run in 2016. Has four good pitches he can keep in the zone and is frontline hurler. For whatever reason, seldom pitches beyond the seventh inning. 





Hamels, Cole • 5-12 (2-6 A)

Has fit in comfortably at Texas, with still good fastball that moves late when low in the zone, excellent cutter and still one of the best changes in the game. Part of poor record is he's been on some bad teams of late in Philadelphia and has thrown better when the weather heats up, which is not a problem in Dallas.


Peralta, Wily • 3-12 (1-6 A) 

Been hit hard thus far in 2016, not keeping fastball down and delivering too many room service sliders. Peralta lacks great stuff and even when he's at his best, not many swings and misses. Note: Figures represent career start marks.


MLB Regular Season - $999
MLB Monthly - $299
Expert MLB Picks - starting at $15

Sunday Selections: Ride The Wave!

CE Manager May 1, 2016
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The month of April was a winning one for the Covers Experts and with spring in the air, expect this profit surge to continue.

Some impressive streaks will be put to the test and with a big day of basketball, hockey, and baseball on tap, make sure you have the strongest plays on your ticket.


Zack Cimini has been red-hot since joining Covers Experts and enters today on a 20-5 (80%) NBA run that has seen him bank $13,185.

- Cimini's NBA Sunday ATS Key Position

Steve Merril has been a profit machine on the hardwood lately, going 11-4 (73%) on his last 15 plays, earnined $6,640.

- 10* NBA Playoffs TV Cash - Pacers/Raptors



Al McMordie is becoming well known for his hockey expertise and this postseason has been no exception. Big Al has cashed 15 of his last 19 releases, leaving him $8,316 in the black.

- Big Al's 10* NHL Elite Info Winner

After a slow start to the playoffs, Ben Burns has returned to his dominant form on the ice, going 8-3-1 (73%) over the last week and a half, earning $2,824 of the house's money.

- Burns' 10* NHL Blue Chip Total



Marc Lawrence has been scorching hot on the diamond, owning an incredible 16-2 (89%) run over the last 3 weeks that has produced $10,826 of profit.

- 10* MLB Game of the Week Top Key Play

After crushing it on the bases last season, Larry Ness is finding his groove once again. The vet is now 15-5 (75%) on his last 20 plays, with $8,896 to show for it.

- 10* MLB Weekend Wipeout Winner


PRODUCT ALERT: The Experts Consensus is off a perfect 4-0 Saturday sweep, and is now 7-1 over the last 2 days, and 24-9 over the last 9 days. Save $200 on the Monthly Package and get access to Covers Experts strongest plays!


Take it to the books!


- Covers Team