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NCAAF Line Watch - Week 1

CE Manager 10 hours, 6 minutes ago
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Covers Expert Steve Merril breaks down key week 1 NCAAF games in his *new* College Football podcast - listen here!


SPREAD TO BET NOW:  Arizona State +3.5 (vs. Texas A&M)

Slight movement on this game as Texas A&M opened -3.  But I expect money to eventually show on Arizona State in this game, so taking the Sun Devils at +3.5 now may be a prudent move to make.

My raw power ratings actually rate Arizona State slightly higher than Texas A&M, and I don’t think the Aggies should be given more than a point or two for home field since this game will be played in Houston.  That means there is value on Arizona State based on my numbers, and since I think the two teams are basically even after adjusting for location, grab the +3.5 now on the Sun Devils before the line drops.

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SPREAD TO WAIT ON:  Bowling Green +20.5 (vs. Tennessee)

Tennessee opened as 21-point favorites over Bowling Green, and a little early money has nudged the line down to -20.5 in favor of the Volunteers.  However, I expect money to come in on Tennessee from the public bettors closer to kickoff.

Bowling Green returns 10 starters from a fantastic offense that averaged 30 points per game on 433 yards of offense last season.  The Falcons can score points, so that makes them a dangerous underdog in this pointspread range.  This game will be played in Nashville, and that lessens Tennessee’s home field advantage.  Wait and take Bowling Green +21 or more in this game.

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TOTAL TO WATCH:  Wisconsin/Alabama 49.5

Wisconsin and Alabama are both similar teams in that they are heavily reliant on running the football and playing excellent defense to win.  The total opened around 53.5, and it was quickly bet down to the current number of 50 which is fully understandable.

There are some major question marks on both teams coming into this game.  Alabama is young and inexperienced (10 returning starters), but they are obviously super talented.  Wisconsin has a new coach in Paul Chryst, and he only has 11 returning starters to work with.  The Badgers also have offensive line concerns which will limit their scoring production.  This game should be low-scoring, and there’s still value on the Under at the current number.

 

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As always, take it to the books!

Covers-Team

NCAAF GameDay Kickoff!

CE Manager Sep 1, 2015
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Football season is here and we’ve got lots of great news to share. Read on!

The NCAAF Regular Season kicks off tonight and we have you covered! Check out how you can cash in on the NCAAF with Covers Experts:

1. Expert Picks as low as $15
2. Covers Experts NCAAF Regular Season Package for only $799
3. *Best Value* Covers Experts NCAAF Reg Season & Bowls Package gets you picks & advice for the ENTIRE college year for only $999
4. Covers Experts NCAAF Monthly Subscription gets you picks & advice for 31 days with an Expert of your choice for only $279

Not sure which Expert to go with? Check out last year’s Covers Experts NCAAF records:

Ben Burns earned $5,337 in the 1st half
Matt Fargo earned $5,082 in the 1st half
Larry Ness earned $6,010 in the 2nd half
Steve Merril earned $5,380 in the 2nd half

Don’t forget about the FREE King of Covers NCAAF contest where you can test your college football handicapping skills for a chance to win over $4,000 in cash & prizes!


Make covers your home for the best in football betting picks.

The Covers Team

 

P.S. The NFL Regular Season kicks off one week from today! Save $ with the NFL Regular Season Package now only $999 or pick up a NFL Monthly Subscription for only $299. Get the best in picks, tips and advice all season long!

Burns and Lawrence scorching hot!

CE Manager Sep 1, 2015
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Covers Expert Ben Burns is notorious for going on red hot streaks where he reels off win after win. That is exactly what he is putting together right now, as Ben has cashed 16 of his last 18 plays in the MLB while earning his clients a whopping $11,260.

Burns capped off the weekend with a perfect 4-0 sweep on the diamond, including two huge 10* plays on the Chicago White Sox and San Diego Padres; then he followed that up with a stellar 2-1 Monday where he picked the Cleveland Indians to stump the red-hot Toronto Blue Jays - a bet only one of the sharpest minds in the industry would make.

September is here and the playoff push is officially on. Lucky for you, Ben has found his groove at just the right time. A full Tuesday card is posted, featuring a pair of top rated plays. Make sure you have them locked in!

- Burns' 10* A.L. Personal Favorite

- Burns' 10* NL Personal Favorite

- Burns' 10* BLUE CHIP Super Total

A streak like what Burns is on can be rare for some, but our for our Experts is just a matter of who and when. Take Marc Lawrence for example, he's on an incredible 12-1, +$8,452 MLB run himself with no end in sight. Marc is diligent with his play releases and believes in quality over quantity, so be sure to always monitor Marc's available picks as you can be sure they contain a super strong angle. Today he's rolling out with a single, extremely strong MLB pick:

Marc's Scorching Hot 7* MLB Perfect Play

 Want to ride this amazing run for some serious long-term profits? Take advantage of Ben and Marc's many subscription options:

- All Sports Monthly $499

- All Sports Weekly $229

- MLB Monthly $229

 

P.S. Football season is finally here! Pick up your Covers Experts NFL and NCAAF package today and get every winner on the gridiron all year long.

 

Take it to the books!

 

- Covers Team

NFL Teams The Sharps Love & Hate

CE Manager Aug 31, 2015
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By Teddy Covers:

The markets don’t lie when it comes to measuring wiseguy support, because the results are easy to quantify.  For the purposes of this article, I’m going to focus on the Season Win Total numbers from the Westgate Superbook, where the Supercontest Weekend just brought together bettors from across the Las Vegas Valley as well as across the country.

Rather than use opening numbers from the Superbook, I think the more accurate way to measure the effect of the preseason is to look at post-draft numbers from early June.  When we compare those early June numbers with the bettable numbers that are on display on the last day of August (following the first three weeks of preseason action), we get a fairly accurate picture of market support.

The reasons that I’m starting with early June numbers and not the very first openers are twofold.  First, there is a fair bit of variance with the opening numbers from one sportsbook to the next.  By June, much that variance has been ironed out.  The sharp bettors looking to play Overs will find the lowest number to exploit, while bettors looking to play Unders will find the highest number to play Under.  In that way, the differences between one book and the next slowly get minimized as the markets ‘mature’, and any outlier numbers get bet out of the marketplace. 

Secondly, the very first numbers were posted before the draft and before the free agent signing period, without a full accounting of the roster changes between the end of the 2014 campaign and the start of the 2015 season.  The early June Win Total numbers, however, are post-draft and post-early free agency (where the vast majority of the impact, ‘big name’ players get signed).  They offer a fairly accurate representation of the ‘pre-training camp’ betting market opinion for all 32 teams in the league, and that’s where I like to start my analysis; comparing those ‘pre training camp’ numbers with the numbers that are bettable today.

For the purposes of this article, I’m focusing on the line moves that have been 50 cents or greater.  For example St Louis was lined at 8 wins with the Under at -130 back in early June.  Today at the Superbook, they are lined at 8 wins with the Under at -180, a 50 cent swing.  The standard wiseguy formula for measuring NFL juice is that fifty cents of extra juice equates to about half a win.  So while the win total of ‘8’ hasn’t moved one iota, the -130 to -180 move on the juice for betting the Rams Under 8 is a fairly significant move.  The wiseguys are clearly betting against St Louis right now, an unpopular team in the markets.

The single biggest market move has come in support of the Minnesota Vikings; a ‘perfect storm’.  At many books this summer, the Vikings were lined at 7 wins.  The Superbook lined them a bit higher, at 7.5.  That 7.5 was at +100 (even money) on June 2nd.  By last week, that 7.5 was bet up to -215.  Today, you can’t find a 7.5 at the Superbook – they’ve made the move to 8 with the Over 8 sitting at -135. 

Why all the love for the Vikings?  Let’s start with their competition within the NFC North.  Green Bay hasn’t had a good preseason, with the injury bug biting their wide receiving corps in a major way.  The markets aren’t particularly bullish on the Lions, expecting a drop-off from last year’s 11 win campaign.  Even Bears fans aren’t excited about Chicago’s prospects for 2015, a team that’s been sinking in the markets in recent weeks.  That leaves Minnesota as the only team in the division that’s attracting Over money.  When there’s only one team in a division that’s taking Over money, they tend to take a lot of it!

Minnesota came into the offseason as a fairly hot commodity.  They have a second year head coach in Mike Zimmer, a guy the markets like, and a second year quarterback in Teddy Bridgewater who the markets like as well.  Zimmer’s systems and personnel are now firmly in place and the markets see Bridgewater primed for improvement in his second year as the starter.  Throw in the somewhat surprise return of Adrian Peterson at running back and from a personnel and coaching standpoint, the markets have been impressed.

Then there’s the Vikings preseason success; winning and covering all four games thusfar.  In particular, Minnesota’s defense has looked phenomenal ; shutting down opposing offenses in every game that they’ve played.  For a team that hasn’t been to the playoffs since 2009, the Vikings are white hot in the markets today, with many bettors expecting that playoff drought to end in 2015.

Three bottom feeders from last year have attracted some betting marketplace love.  The Oakland Raiders were 5.5 (Over +120) in June, now they are 5.5 (Over -160).  Tennessee is another bottom feeder from last year that is attracting money, from 5.5 (Over +110) to 5.5 (Over -150).  And Tampa Bay has taken Over money as well, moving from 6 (Over +120) to 6 (Over -140).   That trio is a clear indicator that the markets tend look for teams to revert to the mean following a subpar campaign.

But not all bottom feeders from last year are drawing market support here in the preseason.  Look no further than the Cleveland Browns, who have moved from 6.5 (Over +100) to 6.5 (Over +140).   The markets sure don’t like the way Cleveland’s QB competition has played out here in August, and their opposing strength of schedule looks even tougher now than it did during the summer, especially over the back half of the campaign.

A trio of underachievers from last year are being priced as underachievers again this year. The markets have reacted strongly to the endless barrage of injuries that have decimated the Giants defense here in August.  New York was 8 (Over -140) in June, now they are 8 (Over +130).   The Saints were lined at 9 back in June, but the markets aren’t excited about New Orleans, pushing their win total down to 8.5 (Over -140).

And then, of course, there’s the San Francisco 49ers; a team lined as high as 8.5 at some books at the opener, and a team that was still lined at 7.5 with the Under at -160 in early June.  Today at the Superbook that number is all the way down to 6.5 wins, with the Under priced at -150.   Without a doubt, San Francisco has been the #1 wiseguy ‘bet-against’ team of the summer.  San Fran is now a 2.5 point home underdog to Minnesota on Monday Night Football in Week 1; a game that opened with San Fran as 3.5 point favorites last Spring; clear evidence of the markets STRONG opinion about both of those teams.

Last, but not least, two Super Bowl ‘sleepers’ have been drawing market love of late.  The Miami Dolphins have moved from 9 (Over +100) to 9 (Over -150) since June.   And the Philadelphia Eagles were 9.5 (Over +120) in June, but you’ll have to lay -150 to bet Philly Over 9.5 at the Superbook today.  Both the Dolphins and Eagles have seen corresponding moves in their Super Bowl odds as well; two hot teams for wiseguy support here in August.

 

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- Regular Season Package (all picks from Week 1 through Week 17) - $999

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Individual picks for Week 1 are now available. Click here to lock in these winners before the lines move!

14-1 MLB Run By Ben Burns!

CE Manager Aug 30, 2015
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Covers Expert Ben Burns is notorious for going on red hot streaks where he reels off win after win. That is exactly what he is putting together right now, as Ben has cashed 14 of his last 15 plays in the MLB while earning his clients a whopping $10,580.

Burns capped off the weekend with a perfect 4-0 sweep on the diamond, including two huge 10* plays on the Chicago White Sox and San Diego Padres. September is almost here and the playoff push is officially on. Lucky for you, Ben has found his groove at just the right time. A full Monday card is posted, featuring a pair of top rated plays. Make sure you have them locked in!

- Burns' 10* Personal Favorite

- Burns' 10* N.L. Personal Favorite

- Burns' Run Line Annihilator

*Save $50 off the guaranteed price and get all 3 plays in Burns' Monday All Access Pass*

 

Want to ride this amazing run for some serious long-term profits? Take advantage of Ben's many subscription options:

- All Sports Monthly $499

- All Sports Weekly $229

- MLB Monthly $229

 

P.S. Football season is finally here! Pick up your Covers Experts NFL and NCAAF package today and get every winner on the gridiron all year long.

 

Take it to the books!

 

- Covers Team