Brandon Shively's MLB Weekly Dose
Brandon Shively likes to take a look ahead every week in baseball for potential good situational and spot bets. He has identified some key games below that have caught his eye and are worth a closer look come game time.
5/25--Chicago Cubs (Arrieta) @ Saint Louis (Martinez)---While Jake Arrieta remains the best pitcher in the Majors, it can’t go unnoticed that the Cardinals are 5-0 all time in Carlos Martinez starts against the Cubs. Martinez has been listed anywhere from a -109 to a -138 in his four career home starts vs the Cubs. I could see this being a potential one run game and with the Cardinals being a MLB best 15-4 (79%) +1.5 runs as a home underdog since 2014, I think that the Cardinals are worth a second look Wednesday night on the Run line.
5/26--Colorado (Gray) @ Boston (Buchholz)----Jon Gray for the Rockies is an ‘under-the-radar’ pitcher for the Rockies. Gray is coming off a short lived 3.1 inning outing where he gave up 9 runs vs. the Cardinals, so he won’t get much notice from the public or respect from the oddsmaker. The Rockies have a lineup that is capable of going ‘toe to toe’ with the Red Sox, especially since they are facing Clay Buchholz who has given up 5 earned runs in five of his nine starts already this season. His 5.48 FIP holds true to his 5.92 ERA on the season. The oddsmakers have been forced to start to inflate the Red Sox lines when playing at Fenway park, giving value to the underdog when the correct pitching/hitting matchup can be found. I feel this is a potential one with a nice pay off. Let’s take a closer look at the Rockies if a +150 or more underdog on Wednesday.
5/27--Philly (Morgan) @ Chicago Cubs (Lester)---The Phillies starting rotation has been stellar this season other than that of Adam Morgan. Morgan has a 5.66 ERA this month and the Phillies have lost three of his four starts. The one win came against the Braves so nothing to brag on there. This is a day game at Wrigley Field and one for Jon Lester to rebound off of after a rare 2.2 inning outing vs the Giants over the weekend. Lester just didn’t have his ‘stuff’ working last Saturday but he is a good enough pitcher to easily bounceback in form his next outing. Opposing batters are hitting only .190 vs Lester in Wrigley this season and he has 38K in only 33 IP. The Phillies are ranked 28th (only the Twins and Braves are worse) in weighted On Base Average vs. left handed starters this season. The Phillies offense remains one of the worst while the Cubs bats are overdue for an offensive explosion if it hasn’t happened yet. I don’t mind looking to lay the -1.5 runs here with this matchup that I feel is warranted.
5/28--Reds (Simon) @ Brewers (Anderson)---It’s only a matter of time before Alfredo Simon either gets demoted to the bullpen or the minors. Until then, he is on my ‘auto fade’ and ‘auto-over’ list. His 10.16 ERA/ 2.15 WHIP is proof in the pudding. Chase Anderson for the Brewers has already given up 12 homeruns this season and got tagged for 6 runs in a starts against the Reds earlier this month in a 9-5 game. The Reds have the worst bullpen in the Majors and the Brewers aren’t far behind. If you like this game ‘over’, then I suggest taking a position on it when the overnight line is posted, because it will more than likely go up at least a half if not a full run by game time.
Some of these pitching matchup might change, so it’s always good to check daily for changes and injuries, etc. My daily handicapping begins with a run down of the current injury report followed by the weather report, then I go down my list looking at other situations and factors that lead to my final decision on releasing a pick. Baseball is a very long season, so patience is required. I have had to learn that the hard way this season as admittingly, I got off to a dreaded start. Things are now looking up and I look forward to making you guys some money along with myself as we get our bankrolls nice and fat leading into football season!
The Coach Dials Up More Winners!
Covers Expert Will Rogers has been putting a beatdown on the books all month long and he continued that trend on Monday, posting yet another winning 3-1 day.
The Coach correctly called Toronto 1st Half (+2.5) in the NBA Playoffs and San Jose (+115) in the NHL Playoffs, both as top rated 10* plays. While he split a pair of run-line MLB picks, Will is still a REMARKABLE 42-16 (72%) over his last 58 baseball releases.
Overall, Rogers is now 66-34-1 (66%) in the month of May, good for $19,366 of pure profit. That includes a run of picking 71% winners (32-13) over the last 11 days. Join The Coach's winning team on Tuesday for another profit haul!
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Employing more of a "quality over quanitity" approach, Marc Lawrence stayed perfect since Friday by delivering a big winner on Toronto +6. Marc is now 6-0 (100%) over last 4 days and owns a pair of impressive longer-term runs: 10-3 (77%) L13 NBA & 29-10 (74%) L39 MLB!
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Your card is never complete without checking in on the Experts Consensus. Our premium product is a perfect 3-0 (100%) over the last 2 days and 9-3 (75%) in the past week. FIVE massive plays go Tuesday, including a MONSTER in the NBA and two NHL plays that haven't lost in May!
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MLB Betting Cheat Sheet: May 23-26
Written by: Power Sports
0 for 6
Six times division rivals San Diego and San Francisco have met this year. All six times the latter has won. The most recent series was in San Diego and saw the Padres score just one run in all three games. This week, the teams meet at AT&T Park in San Francisco. The Giants had to play Sunday Night, but the Padres went 17 innings against the Dodgers (and lost), so gone is any advantage there for the road team. Plus, the Giants are a hot team right now as they’ve won 10 of their last 11. At least the Padres will avoid Madison Bumgarner in this series (he pitched Sunday night).
No Home Field Advantage Here
Six times division rivals Oakland and Seattle have played this year. All six times the home team has lost. Ironically, the A’s were just swept at home by the Yankees over the weekend while the Mariners swept a series in Cincinnati. Thus, I suppose you could say then that the M’s are unfortunate hosts to start the week. They are just 8-10 at Safeco Field for the season and hitting .218 here as a team. But aside from the sweep earlier this season, the Athletics are by no means a dominant road team. They’re being outscored by 1.5 runs per game overall despite a .500 record. One break for the A’s this week is they won’t have to face Felix Hernandez.
For most of this season, the Yankees have occupied the basement in the American League East. But after five straight wins, the last four coming in Oakland, they now find themselves in third. Toronto, even though they won Sunday, has fallen into last. But they still have the better run differential (+2 compared to -19) compared to their Pinstriped rivals and they’re another team where the road has been kinder than home. So, I would not be the least bit surprised if they end up winning this series in the Bronx this week. They did take two of three from New York earlier this year at home.
*It’s a tough break for Tampa Bay losing Kevin Kiermaier from their lineup. Not only was the Gold Glove outfielder batting .313 over a nine-game stretch before breaking two bones in his left hand Saturday, he’s also a career .424 hitter against this week’s opponent, Miami.
*The White Sox cooled off considerably over the past week, losing six of eight games. Part of that is owed to some terrible hitting with runners in scoring position (1 for 23 against the Royals). However, there is at least one hitter in the lineup poised to possibly break out this week against Cleveland. That would be Jose Abreu, who has hit .440 his last seven games against the Indians.
*Washington just took two of three from the Mets last week, on the road. Now they get to host their main rival, trotting out Gio Gonzalez and Stephen Strasburg for the first two games. Gonzalez always seems to excel against division opponents (1.38 ERA last 15 starts) and has done quite well for himself overall this season (allowed 1 ER or less in six of eight starts). He’ll be a sizable favorite Monday over Bartolo Colon.
*If you’ve been following this column the last couple of weeks, then you know I’m at a loss for words over the Phillies’ surprising start. But I will certainly give a nod to starter Vince Velasquez, who is striking out nearly 11 batters per nine innings. In fact, in half of his eight starts, the 23-year old hasn’t given any runs. He’ll be a slight favorite, on the road, against Detroit Monday night as the Tigers will counter with the winless Mike Pelfrey (6.37 ERA, 1.829 WHIP).
The Under was a perfect 3-0 in the first Kansas City-Minnesota series of 2016 and that’s the way the total has generally gone in this AL Central rivalry. Since the start of last season, the Under is 15-4-3 in all Royals-Twins games. The two play a three-game set in the Twin Cities this week. All three games in the Royals’ previous series (against Chicago) also went Under by the way.
The Coach is Putting on a Clinic!
To say that Will Rogers is hot right now would be a bit of an understatement. "The Coach" entered the weekend streaking in every sport and he delivered the goods once again. Take a look at the following runs this inudstry vet is bringing to the table:
41-15 (73%) L56 MLB (+$16,314)
29-12 (71%) All Sports L10 Days (+$10,784)
63-33-1 (66%) Overall in May (+$17,536)
Will has you covered with 3-sport action for Monday's card:
- What Will Rogers is doing in MLB right now is MIND-BLOWING! It's an INCREDIBLE 41-15 Run after a 3-0 SWEEP Sunday! He runs ANOTHER "Clinic" on the books here.
- What Will Rogers is doing in MLB right now is MIND-BLOWING! It's an INCREDIBLE 41-15 Run after a 3-0 SWEEP Sunday! PUNISH the books with this Run Line WINNER!
- WHAT. A. PLAY! Talk about "living up to the hype." Will Rogers released his *10* NBA Game of the Month Sunday on Oklahoma City and the Thunder DESTROYED the Warriors 133-105!
- "The Coach" is SMOKIN' HOT in EVERY sport right now, NHL included (9-4-1 Run)! He keeps it going here in Gm 5 of the Western Conference Finals!
MORE HOT CAPPERS:
After suffering his first losing day of the week on Saturday, Ben Burns bounced back with a solid 2-1 Sunday, making it six winning days out of the last seven. This stretch has saw Burns bank $7,853 of the house's money. Two strong plays have been circled for tonight:
- WHITE HOT Ben Burns followed up Saturday's GAME OF THE MONTH WINNER on the Raptors with an ABSOLUTE LAUGHER on the "over" in Sunday's GS/OKC game. Now a SWEET 6-1 his L7 NBA, Burns keeps the pedal to the metal with another MASSIVE 10* OPPORTUNITY. Yesterday's winner extended an INCREDIBLE $147,460 PROFIT RAMPAGE w/ all top rated plays. Be there!
- Its not easy to do but Ben Burns is winning @ every single sport in 2016. He already won w/ pro & college football & he did the same w/ college hoops. Now, he's winning w/ his NBA, NHL & MLB. A 9-4 (+$2,903) YTD RECORD on "run-line" plays has helped do its part. That includes a PERFECT 3-0 mark w/ top-rated (10*) plays. Ben stays PERFECT. You in?
Marc Lawrence swept the board over the weekend, going a perfect 5-0 since Friday and 7-1 overall in the last 5 days. Marc now owns long-term runs of 29-10 in the MLB and 58-34 in the NBA. He has idenitifed another winner on the hardwood tonight:
- Marc’s smoking hot hand on the NBA hardwood (57-34 overall) continues Monday night with another 7* Triple Perfect NBA Key Play on the Cavs-Raptors Eastern Conference Finals clash. You know exactly what to do!
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- Marc Lawrence
- May 25, 2016 - 8:10 PM
- Offered at:
- bookmaker @ 125 Baltimore
Play - Baltimore w/Wilson vs.McHugh.
Edges - Orioles: Tyler Wilson 4-1 away career team starts; and 2-0 away with 3.75 ERA and 1.08 WHIP this season. Astros: Colin McHugh 0-3 team starts versus A.L. East foes this season, and 5.13 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP this season.
With Houston just 11-22 at night this season, and the Orioles 21-10 under the lights at night this campaign, we recommend a 1* play on Baltimore. Thank you and good luck as always.
> It doesn’t get any better than this - Marc’s red-hot top rated 10* NBA Playoff Game Of The Week and it goes Wednesday night in the Cavs-Raptors Eastern Conference finals showdown. If you’re serious about winning you know exactly what to do!