Pick Details

Jacksonville vs. Indianapolis

PICK: guts @ -2.5 IND (-118)

DATE: November 11, 2018 - 1:00 PM

STAR RATING: 10.0

SPORT: NFL

EXPERT: Larry Ness

EVALUATION: Win (1000) - Final Score JAC 26 at IND 29

ANALYSIS:

My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Indianapolis Colts (1:00 EST).

Two desperate teams collide on Sunday afternoon and in my opinion, the home field advantage can not be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular match-up.

Both teams are 3-5.

Jacksonville comes in on a four-game slide, most recently getting man-handled in England by Philadelphia 24-18. QB Blake Bortles has 2,021 passing yards, but a weak 10/8 TD/INT. TJ Yeldon leads the run game with 334 yards. Overall the Jags are averaging only 16.9 PPG, while allowing just 313.2 YPG on the defensive side, good enough for second in the league.

The Colts come in with momentum, they most recently destroyed Oakland 42-28. QB Andrew Luck has 2,187 passing yards with 28 TDs and eight INTs. RB Marlon Back has 381 yards and three TDs. Overall the Colts are posting 28.9 PPG.

I’ll point out as well that the Jags are just 1-5 ATS in their last six following a loss, while the Colts are 32-13 ATS in their last 45 against teams with losing records.

The Colts’ suspect defense catches a big break this week facing the horrible Jags’ offense. Look for Luck to push the pace and for the home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Lay the points.

Good luck…Larry


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