Pick Details

(201) San Jose State vs. Utah State (202)

PICK: williamhill @ Under 63 (-110)

DATE: November 10, 2018 - 4:00 PM

STAR RATING: 10.0

SPORT: NCAAF

EXPERT: Ben Burns

EVALUATION: Loss (-1100) - Final Total 86

ANALYSIS:

I'm playing on Utah State / SJ State to finish UNDER the total. As you likely know, the Utah State offense has been extremely potent all season long. Thats led to higher and higher O/U lines. I feel that this one will prove to be too high. Last week, the Aggies saw QB Jordan Love leave with a hit to the head. His status is currently up in the air. I'm going to assume that he'll play. However, with the Aggies favored by greater than four TD's, there's little reason to take any chances. Either way, the Aggies will score points, as per usual. Just not as many as most will be expecting. San Jose State is in the second year of a new defense and is slowly showing signs of improvement. The last two times that they were large underdogs (Wyoming and SDSU) they allowed only 24 and 16 points, despite being +17.5 and +25.5 point underdogs. In their lone game where they were underdogs of a similar size to what they are here (+30.5 underdogs against WSU) they allowed only 31 points, losing 31-0. The only time that they were bigger underdogs than that was at Oregon and that game stayed below the number by double-digits, too. The Spartans, who have scored less than 14 points in three of their last four, figure to have real trouble scoring; Utah State held Hawaii to 43 rushing yards on 20 carries. The UNDER is a perfect 4-0 in SJ State road games. I expect those stats to improve Sat. afternoon. 


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