(131) Troy vs. Georgia Southern (132)
PICK: bwin @ 1.5 GASO (-115)
DATE: November 10, 2018 - 1:00 PM
STAR RATING: 10.0
EXPERT: Power Sports
EVALUATION: Loss (-1150) - Final Score TROY 35 at GASO 21
10* Georgia Southern (1:00 ET): Though my own personal numbers indicated they should have been a much bigger favorite, I stayed away from Georgia Southern last Saturday, feeling that it was an absolutely horrible spot for them to lay points, on the road no less, coming off the huge win over Appalachian State. Turns out that feeling was correct as the Eagles went down at the hands of LA Monroe, 44-25, in what was easily their worst performance of the season. They found themselves down 27-3 before halftime and were outgained 573-216 for the game. But you have to keep in mind that the only other team to beat Ga Southern this year was #2 Clemson. In what shapes up as their most important game of the year, I'll call for the Eagles to bounce back in Statesboro.
Troy is the only team w/o a conference loss in the Sun Belt. They are 5-0 SU, meaning they're up by one game over both Ga Southern and Appalachian State. Earlier in the year, the Trojans treated me to a nice upset over Nebraska, although we didn't know just how bad the Cornhuskers were yet and Troy was actually held to only 243 total yards in that game. Still, the Trojans are 7-2 SU at this point in the season (same as Ga Southern) w/ their only losses coming to Boise State and Liberty. They have not yet faced Appalachian State as that game is the regular season finale, in Boone. Troy has hardly faced the most challenging schedule so far in conference play and wasn't all that impressive in a 26-16 win over Louisiana last week as seven-point home favorites.
If Ga Southern were to win here, then they control their own destiny in the Sun Belt East Division and would have the tiebreaker over both Troy and Appalachian State. So you can see just how important this game truly is. A loss and the division likely goes to the winner of Troy-App State at the end of the year. The good news is this game being in Statesboro where the Eagles are a perfect 5-0 SU this year and outscoring opponents by nearly 23 PPG. They'd also beaten Troy six straight times prior to LY's 38-16 loss. But Ga Southern was not a good team last year (went just 2-10 SU). This year, they're back up to 7th in the country in rushing offense. They steamrolled a very good App State team on this field two weeks ago. They are the better team and should be favored here. 10* Georgia Southern