(479) San Francisco vs. Kansas City (480)
PICK: pinnacle @ -6.5 KC (100)
DATE: September 23, 2018 - 1:00 PM
STAR RATING: 8.0
EXPERT: AAA Sports
EVALUATION: Win (800) - Final Score SF 27 at KC 38
This is an 8* play on the Kansas City Chiefs.
We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS trends and common sense:
As note that San Francisco is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range and just 12-15 ATS in its last 27 as an underdog, while KC is 6-4 ATS in its last ten as a home favorite in the 3.5 to seven points range, and 18-11 ATS in its last 29 played on a grass field.
The bottom line: We think the 49ers’ suspect offense struggles in this difficult road venue. Lay the points, play on the CHIEFS.