(569) Dallas vs. Denver (570)
PICK: williamhill @ Over 220 (-110)
DATE: March 14, 2019 - 10:30 PM
STAR RATING: 10.0
EXPERT: Power Sports
EVALUATION: Loss (-1100) - Final Total 199
10* Over Mavericks/Nuggets (10:35 ET): Denver got a much needed offensive outburst Tuesday night, scoring 133 points at the expense of the defensively challenged T'wolves. That snapped a nine-game Under streak for the Nuggets. More importantly (for them), it was a win, just their second in the last six games. Yet they are still very much alive for the top spot in the Western Conference, just one game back of the Warriors. Here, I think they should again put up a ton of points as they face a struggling Dallas team. Take the Over.
The Mavericks have lost six in a row and 11 of their last 12. Not helping is the fact rookie sensation Luka Doncic is not 100%. Tuesday against San Antonio, Doncic didn't even score until the final minute of the first half. He finished w/ only 12 points and had nine turnovers. It was clearly one of the worst games of his career. Now, the last time Dallas faced Denver, they were w/o Doncic entirely. It was only the third game Doncic missed all season and the Mavs managed only 104 points on 40.5% shooting. Obviously, Doncic's health is worth monitoring here, but this Over bet stands with or without him.
Denver didn't shoot well in that previous meeting either, finishing w/ a FG% of only 40.8. They shot 60% against Minnesota Tuesday and upped their scoring average at home to 116.5 for the year. The Mavericks' scoring average hardly drops on the road, even though their won-loss record (6-27) is far worse than it is at home (21-13). The problem lies on the defensive end as they're giving up 113.1 PPG on the road, compared to just 106.3 PPG at home. When the teams met here in Denver earlier in the year (December), the final score was 126-118, an easy Over. Similar story here. 10* Over Mavericks/Nuggets