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Pick Details

ATP Rio De Janeiro: Fabio Fognini v Aljaz Bedene

PICK: pinnacle @ FF (107)

DATE: February 23, 2018 - 5:30 PM

STAR RATING: 8.0

SPORT: ATP

EXPERT: Tennis Insiders

EVALUATION: Win (856)

ANALYSIS:

Pick: 8* Fognini Moneyline

- Fognini leads the head-to-head 7-0, but that isn't the key reasoning behind this play. 

- Bedene reached the final in Buenos Aires last week, but he's struggled despite winning his two matches in Rio. 

- He defeated Haider-Maurer 7-5/6-0 but his first serve was just 36%. He defeated Carreno Busta yesterday in 2hrs 27mins, but his performance dipped heavily, allowing 15 break points

- Fognini has certainly fought through adversity this week, coming from 6-7/0-4 to defeat Bellucci and saving match point against Sandgren on Thursday. Coming through these tough mental moments should help him

- Bedene is now overvalued after a successful run on the dirt, but fatigue could be present and he faces a player he's never beaten, losing 7 consecutive meetings, 6 of those on clay.

- Fognini's mindset is always a problem but he appears locked in this week, take advantage of the plus money on a player who holds the edge on the surface. Take Fabio Fognini Moneyline


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