ATP Rio De Janeiro: Fabio Fognini v Aljaz Bedene
PICK: pinnacle @ FF (107)
DATE: February 23, 2018 - 5:30 PM
STAR RATING: 8.0
EXPERT: Tennis Insiders
EVALUATION: Win (856)
Pick: 8* Fognini Moneyline
- Fognini leads the head-to-head 7-0, but that isn't the key reasoning behind this play.
- Bedene reached the final in Buenos Aires last week, but he's struggled despite winning his two matches in Rio.
- He defeated Haider-Maurer 7-5/6-0 but his first serve was just 36%. He defeated Carreno Busta yesterday in 2hrs 27mins, but his performance dipped heavily, allowing 15 break points
- Fognini has certainly fought through adversity this week, coming from 6-7/0-4 to defeat Bellucci and saving match point against Sandgren on Thursday. Coming through these tough mental moments should help him
- Bedene is now overvalued after a successful run on the dirt, but fatigue could be present and he faces a player he's never beaten, losing 7 consecutive meetings, 6 of those on clay.
- Fognini's mindset is always a problem but he appears locked in this week, take advantage of the plus money on a player who holds the edge on the surface. Take Fabio Fognini Moneyline