Pick Details

(223) UNLV vs. San Diego State (224)

PICK: pinnacle @ 22.5 UNLV (-103)

DATE: November 10, 2018 - 10:30 PM

STAR RATING: 8.0

SPORT: NCAAF

EXPERT: Power Sports

EVALUATION: Win (800) - Final Score UNLV 27 at SDSU 24

ANALYSIS:

8* UNLV (10:30 ET): Second week in a row I'm playing against San Diego State in the late Saturday timeslot. Last week was a pretty easy win w/ New Mexico getting double digits at home. The Lobos scored a defensive touchdown early and led almost the whole way. Eventually, the Aztecs pulled out the win - and they should have, given a massive 401-142 edge in total yards - but it took three late scores to do so. Despite this, and all the team's deficiencies we discussed last week, we again find SDSU laying a big number, only this time at home. And again, I'll grab the points. 

UNLV comes into this game off a 48-3 loss at home (to Fresno State) and w/ an uncertain QB situation. The team desperately is hoping for Armani Rogers to be healthy enough to play here, but he probably won't start. Out since September 22nd, Rogers' absence has played a significant role in the Rebels' disappointing season. They haven't won since the injury, losing six straight, many of the blowout variety. No longer do the Rebels have a shot at being bowl eligible, but knocking off a team like San Diego State could be a season highlight. Now an outright win here would surprise me, but I do think the Rebels can certainly keep it close, especially with Rogers back.

If Rogers were to play, it would create a situation where San Diego State would have to prepare for two very different QB's, the more mobile Rogers and the traditional passer Max Gilliam. Last week was not indicative of where this UNLV program is really at right now. They were up against the best team in the Mountain West and were w/o their best offensive player (Rogers). With Rogers back, the Rebels become a much more effective offense when it comes to running the ball. As discussed last week, San Diego State has not been able to blow teams out this year. This is due to a combination of committing too many penalties and an offense that averages only 22.2 PPG (less than the spread here!). Last week was actually the Aztecs' highest scoring effort of the year! They're 0-6 ATS as favorites in 2018 and have not won a game by more than eight points. Their six wins over FBS schools have come by a total of 31 points. 8* UNLV


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