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Pick Details

UFC: Nelson vs Edwards

PICK: pinnacle @ (135)

DATE: March 16, 2019 - 6:00 PM

STAR RATING: 4.0

SPORT: UFC

EXPERT: MMA OddsBreaker

EVALUATION: Loss (-400)

ANALYSIS:

This is a 4u play on Gunnar Nelson at +135

 

This is a top-level fight between two guys who can contend for the belt. Edwards is the home country guy here and I think he should have a slight edge on the feet. He strikes at a slightly higher rate and I think he lands with more power as well. He has also improved his wrestling a lot over the years and he has a solid top game as well. However, if this fight hits the ground I expect Nelson to have a decent edge and a much bigger edge than Edwards would have on the feet. I think this fight can stay close if it stays standing but if Nelson can land takedowns then that is his path to victory. He can get a submission on the ground or use takedowns to help him get a win from the judges. I think this line should be closer to even and I actually thought Nelson was going to open a slight favorite, so I am going to go with the underdog here and I expect the ground game to be what gets his hand raised. If this does go all 3 rounds it could be a close split decision, but I will pick Nelson to be the first person to submit Edwards here in this spot.


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