Pick Details

(285) San Francisco vs. Seattle (286)

PICK: 5dimes @ 15 SF (-125)

DATE: September 17, 2017 - 4:25 PM

STAR RATING: 10.0

SPORT: NFL

EXPERT: Power Sports

EVALUATION: Win (1000) - Final Score SF 9 at SEA 12

ANALYSIS:

10* San Francisco (4:25 ET): There's an old adage that you can "throw the records out" when it comes to a division rivalry, but in the case of Seahawks-49ers things have grown rather one-sided since Jim Harbaugh bolted from the Bay Area. San Francisco has not beaten this NFC West rival going back to 2013, a span of seven meetings. Worse yet, they are just 1-10 ATS the L11 matchups w/ that one cover coming in LY's final meeting when they were double digit dogs. The number is even more freindly this go around though, at two touchdowns, and given Seattle's offensive issues that makes it a play for me. Double digit dogs in divisional games are 105-75 ATS going back to 2005.

Kyle Shanahan is the third HC in as many years for the 49ers. There's plenty of work to be done here after the failed regimes of Jim Tomsula (barf!) and Chip Kelly. Shanahan rightfully earned kudos for the work he's done as OC at Washington and Atlanta, particuarly the latter, but as we saw last week, the talent here isn't even close to what he had last year w/ the Falcons. The Niners lost 23-3 at home to Carolina, but let's note that total yardage was pretty even (287-217). The defense received a huge blow when rookie Reuben Foster was carted off w/ an ankle injury. Him being out for a month is not good, but the Niners are facing a weaker offense this week, one that has maybe the worst line in all of football. 49ers DC Robert Saleh served under Pete Carroll on the Seattle staff previously, so he's familiar w/ their schemes and then there's this issue w/ GM John Lynch having talked strategy extensively w/ Carroll before taking his current job (previously served as an analyst w/ FOX).

Like San Francisco, Seattle failed to score an offensive touchdown last week. They lost 17-9 at Green Bay, a game that swung on a bogus block in the back call after an interception (would have been a pick-six for the Seahawks) and an ejection of DB Jeremy Lane. Then there was a Russell Wilson turnover inside their own five, setting up an easy Packers' TD. There's no shame in losing at Lambeau, but the Seahawks didn't look particularly good in doing it. With the overwhelming expectation that Seattle will bounce back in this spot, we're getting an inflated line. I'm expecting a relatively low scoring game, which makes taking the double digit number a logical choice. 10* San Francisco

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