Al McMordie @Covers_Experts
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|Jul 13||L||MLB||Tampa Bay||-1070|
|Jul 12||W||MLB||LA Dodgers||800|
|Jul 12||L||MLB||Tampa Bay||-981|
NBA Betting Roadmap, Week 24
Apr 6, 2018
The NBA's season has just six days left, and most of the Playoff seeds are unknown at this juncture. In the Eastern conference, Cleveland and Philly are tussling over the #3 seed, while Miami, Washington and Milwaukee all hope to avoid the #8 slot. Out West, it's even more congested, with the Jazz, Spurs, Thunder, Pelicans, Timberwolves and Nuggets separated by a mere two games in the standings. Let's take a look at the season's final week.
NBA Betting Roadmap, Week 23
Mar 27, 2018
The NBA season took an interesting turn last week when Golden State's Steph Curry sustained an injury which may keep him out of the Playoffs' 1st round. Most seasons, it would not matter, as the Warriors could defeat a lower-seeded team without being at full strength. However, this season, there's a heckuva chance the Warriors will Utah to start the Playoffs. The Jazz are 23-4 in their last 27 games, and are the proverbial "team that no one wants to play." Let's take a look around the NBA.
NBA Betting Roadmap, Week 21
Mar 11, 2018
The Toronto Raptors served notice to the rest of the NBA when they defeated Houston on Friday to snap the Rockets' 17-game win streak. Toronto has won its last eight games, and owns the 3rd best record in the NBA, at 49-17. With just a month left in the season, there are several open questions, such as which team will own the best record, and which Western Conference teams will be left out of the Playoffs. Let's take a look at the NBA's upcoming week.
Years in Handicapping: 26
Achievements in Handicapping: Through April of 2018, I've won 19 of 26 Football seasons, and 18 of 25 Basketball seasons. Some other highlights: In 2017 (and 2014), I ranked #1 in Hockey, as documented by The Sports Monitor. In 2015, I ranked #1 (of 1715 contestants) in the Westgate Casino NFL Mini-Contest. In 2012, I ranked #1 in the NFL, with a 76.7% record on my Top-Rated NFL Plays, as documented by The Sports Monitor. In 2007, I won the $100,000 World Series of Sports Handicapping. And in 2004, I won the Stardust Casino Football Invitational. Since entering the profession in 1992, I've won 42 Handicapping Titles, with 191 Top 5 finishes and 362 Top 10 finishes. And in December 2010, I was among several handicappers featured in an ESPN Magazine article.
Biggest Win of the Year: I predicted the Houston Astros would win the World Series (at 10-1 odds) prior to the start of the regular season, and they delivered with a thrilling 7-game series win over the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Biggest Loss of the Year: In the 2016-17 NBA season, I had predicted (prior to the start of the regular season) in my NBA Roadmap article at Covers that the Golden State Warriors would go 16-0 in the Playoffs. I wagered $1500 on the Warriors to sweep their first series (vs. the Blazers), and rolled it over for them to sweep each of their other three series vs. Utah, San Antonio and Cleveland. They won their first 15 games, and I stood to profit $268,500 (a 179-1 payoff) if they finished the sweep against Cleveland, but they lost Game 4 of the NBA Finals, and wound up going 16-1 in the Playoffs.
Why you like Covers Experts: I love Covers Experts because it has assembled the greatest roster of handicapping talent on the internet. I have extreme pride in the quality of work that I do. Handicapping sports is a very difficult and time-consuming job, and few handicappers have the dedication that I have. Because I take so much care in the work that I do, I want to be surrounded by other handicappers who have the same professionalism. So, it's important that Covers Experts has strict criteria in its selection process of which handicappers to put on its site, and I'm thrilled to be joined by other champion handicappers as we work to provide winners for Covers Experts' clients.
Your favorite stats/pages on Covers: My favorite pages at Covers are the game match-ups, since it's a one-stop shop for team logs, news articles, and point spreads.
Systems used for handicapping a game: I'm a big fan of systems (as opposed to trends), as they lend an objective framework to handicapping. I have one of the most powerful handicapping databases, which goes back to 1980, and I've built it to generate hundreds of football and basketball systems which are uniquely mine. ESPN actually had a feature story in its Magazine on this handicapping database. These systems tend to incorporate my handicapping ideology which is completely different for college and pro sports. In college sports, I often look to play on certain teams which are playing well, yet undervalued by the oddsmakers. In pro sports, I focus on teams which have been underperforming and, as such, are undervalued by the oddsmakers. These are generalizations, and I often play on college teams which are off poor games, and on pro teams which are off big wins. However, I don't exclusively rely on systems, as a handicapper must also incorporate subjective analysis. The best handicappers find a balance between the two methodologies.
Covers Experts Rating System:
- 10* Plays: These are Al McMordie's highest rated selections, and will usually be supported by multiple systems which have win percentages of 80% to 100% over a 15 to 30 year period. 10* Plays are extremely strong, and should be wagered on accordingly. Among the 10* plays are Al McMordie's Elite Info Club Plays, Perfect 10 Club Plays and Payback Paydays (revenge situations). These are exceptional plays (typically rated as 10*), fall into the very best of Big Al's systems (often, systems which have won 90% or higher over a 15 to 30 year period).
- 9* Plays: These are Al McMordie's second highest group of plays, and will usually be supported by multiple systems which have win percentages of 70% to 100% over a 15 to 30 year period. 9* Plays are very strong, and are never to be missed. Among the 9* plays are Al McMordie's famous Roadkill and Road Warrior plays. These are special situations which involve playing on a home team to "kill" a road team (thus, the name "Roadkill"), or a road team to win ("Road Warrior") and are backed by special systems which isolate certain teams to play on or against. Roadkill and Road Warrior Plays are typically rated as 9* plays (though can also be 10* plays), and are very strong.
- 8* Plays: These are Al McMordie's third highest group of selections, and are generally backed by systems and angles which have win percentages of 60% to 100% over a 15 to 30 year period. 8* Plays are solid investments.
- 7* Plays: These are Al McMordie's fourth highest group of selections, and are backed by systems and angles which have win percentages of 55% to 80% over a 15 to 30 year period.
- 6* Plays: These are Al McMordie's fifth highest group of selections, and are backed by systems and angles which have win percentages of 55% to 75% over a 15 to 30 year period.
Big Al's Other Important Categories:
- High Roller Plays: Over Big Al's 25 years as a Professional Handicapper, he's become great friends with some of the biggest money movers, both stateside, and offshore. These High Rollers are a great source of information for Al, and when such information coincides with the findings of his powerful handicapping database, Al releases a High Roller Play. These plays are generally 10* or 9* releases.
- Championship Club: Al McMordie has won 42 Handicapping Championships in his professional career, including the $100,000 World Series of Sports Handicapping in 2007, and the Stardust Casino Football Invitational in 2004. Al also ranked #1 in the NFL in 2012 and #1 in the NHL in 2017 and 2014. Big Al's Championship Club plays are the type of plays which have enabled Al to win these 42 Titles, and are generally rated as 10* plays.
- Favorite team to watch: My favorite sports team (for the last 41 years) is the San Antonio Spurs. I fell in love with them back when they were in the Central Division of the Eastern Conference, and rooted for such stars as George Gervin, Larry Kenon and Mark Olberding. The current era (with stalwarts Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker) is their best, and it's been a lot of fun to be a fan over the past few years. As a handicapper, though, I never let my passion for a team interfere with my analysis.
- Favorite team to wager on or against: Like most serious handicappers, I don't have a favorite team to wager on or against. If there's value based on the point spread, situation, or match-up then I will make a wager, regardless of the name of the particular team.
- Team you avoid when wagering: I don't have a team that I avoid, but I do find the Ivy League conference to be more difficult than the other basketball conferences to handicap.
Quote: "If it's 99% right, then it's 100% wrong." When I worked as an attorney in Bethesda, Maryland, my law partner would often say this to illustrate that one cannot make a mistake or cut corners in any way. I've adopted this maxim as a professional handicapper. I always research a game thoroughly, and if there's any reason, no matter how minor, to stay away from a play, then I won't release it. Only the games that satisfy all my handicapping criteria are released.