Wiseguy Report: Very Early College Football $$

By: Teddy Covers / May 23, 2016

The Golden Nugget here in Las Vegas was the first book to post a bevy of season win totals in college football, numbers that hit the board late last week.  The Nugget posted win total numbers for 24 teams.  Six of those 24 teams saw some early action, including two significant moves: Ohio State Over 8.5 Wins (bet up to 9) and Tennessee Under 10 wins (now -155 to the Under).  

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Wiseguy Report: Wrong Opinions in the NBA Playoffs

By: Teddy Covers / May 16, 2016

Successful sportsbettors are not politicians.   Politicians take heat every time they change their opinion – ‘flip-floppers’.  A politician who is pro-choice on abortion, for example, will take enormous criticism from both sides, and will probably lose his or her next election if he or she switches to a ‘pro-life’ stance.  Sportsbettors, like politicians, are inevitably going to have some wrong opinions – about teams, about players, about coaches

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Wiseguy Report: True 2016 NFL Strength of Schedule

By: Teddy Covers / May 9, 2016

Once last year’s numbers are compiled and filed, it’s time to do the same thing for the upcoming campaign – creating more accurate numbers than you can commonly find.  This week, I’ll focus on the 2016 NFL strength of schedule as they relate to season win totals.  Once again, my goal is to differentiate between the mainstream numbers and the meaningful ones.

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Wiseguy Report: How Pros Attack the NFL in May

By: Teddy Covers / May 2, 2016

The aggregate numbers for last year’s strength of schedule -- the starting point for any analysis of the upcoming 2016 campaign -- can be extremely misleading.  A team’s final win-loss record tells us nothing about how good they actually were at the time the game was played.  There were some enormous in-season power rating shifts last year, just as there are every year.  Here are some key examples:

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Wiseguy Report: The Secret Truth About NFL QB's

By: Teddy Covers / Apr 25, 2016

Over the last ten years, there have been a grand total of three legit superstar quarterbacks to come out of college: Andrew Luck (a #1 overall pick), Cam Newton (a #1 overall pick) and Russell Wilson (the only QB under the age of 30 with a Super Bowl ring).  So basically, if you didn’t draft #1, you’ve had one chance in ten years to get an elite QB.  Hard to find that kind of needle in a haystack, isn’t it!

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Wiseguy Report: NBA Most Undervalued Playoff Teams

By: Teddy Covers / Apr 18, 2016

And that leaves two teams that I think are legitimate title contenders sitting as relative afterthoughts in the national media spotlight and in the betting markets.  The Oklahoma City Thunder were priced in the 15-1 range to win the NBA Title entering the playoffs.  The Los Angeles Clippers were even higher, priced in the 30:1 range.  

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Wiseguy Report: MLB After Week 1

By: Teddy Covers / Apr 11, 2016

Maybe the appropriate title for this week’s Wiseguy Report is ‘”What Lineups Do the Squares Love and Hate Already After One Week.”  Because hitting is one area of the MLB betting marketplace that the public bettors seem to grasp better than the advanced metric lovers.  One week into the campaign there are plenty of reasonable assertions about these MLB lineups that have not been fully factored into the betting market equation yet. 

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Wiseguy Report: How To Beat Baseball in 2016

By: Teddy Covers / Apr 3, 2016

Last year, the top eight pitchers in strikeouts per nine innings were Chris Sale, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Chris Archer, Carlos Carrasco, Corey Kluber, Francisco Liriano and Tyson Ross.  Only one of those eight aces – Liriano – produced a profit for his supporters.  If you bet on the eight best pitchers in baseball in this key advanced metric stat, you lost more than -39 units of profit.  This example CLEARLY shows that K/9 rates are overvalued in the modern baseball markets.

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Wiseguy Report: MLB Markets' Amazing Evolution

By: Teddy Covers / Mar 28, 2016

The nature of the sportsbetting marketplace is relatively simple to understand.  Bettors find an edge that they can profitably exploit; soon followed by bookmakers adjusting to reflect the popularity of the prevailing thought processes behind those winning wagers.  Over time, the marketplace evolves.  The factors that worked to produce profitable results for bettors get ‘priced into the market’ and no longer offer that same level of value.

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Wiseguy Report: Big Dance Hard Numbers, Not Hype

By: Teddy Covers / Mar 21, 2016

The insanity that was the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament is in the rear view mirror, and the hard numbers show a very different story than the mainstream media is reporting.  Just once, I wish I could turn on Sportscenter and find out what was going on against the spread.   But I can't; neither can you.  That, of course, leaves a void to fill....


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Wiseguy Report: Winning Bracket Pool Strategies!

By: Teddy Covers / Mar 14, 2016

I could go off on the NCAA Tournament committee for screwing the mid-majors again, something that’s becoming an annual tradition.  But complaining about the committee is akin to complaining about the weather – everybody does it, but it doesn’t help one iota.  Instead, in this week’s Wiseguy Report, I’m going to focus on the casual fan and strategies for winning office pool bracket contests.

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Wiseguy Report: Who Has What It Takes, Part 2

By: Teddy Covers / Mar 7, 2016

In Part 1 of this article last week, I took a basic look at the profile of the past 16 NCAA champions.  From that profile, I was able to make a ‘short list’ of potential champs in 2016, consisting of the following 16 teams:  Miami-FL, North Carolina, Virginia, Kansas, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Villanova, Xavier, Indiana, Maryland, Michigan State, Purdue, Oregon, Utah, Arizona and Texas A&M.

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Wiseguy Report: NCAA Hoops: Who Has What It Takes?

By: Teddy Covers / Feb 29, 2016

History shows us many things about what it takes to be a champion.  I write this article every year, and in every year except for two, I have been able to identify the eventual NCAA national champion among my elite level teams.   Both exceptions were the same team – UConn – making miracle runs to win the title as prohibitive longshots. 

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Wiseguy Report: Celtics Offer Future Book Value

By: Teddy Covers / Feb 22, 2016

Even though the Cavs deserve to be favored, I would most assuredly not recommend a bet on Cleveland -500 to win the East at this time; not exactly a ‘value laden’ wager. Which leaves us with one question – are the Celtics or the Raptors more likely to be able to win a seven game series against the defending (and currently healthy) Eastern Conference champs?  I’m not sold on the Raptors chances.

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Vegas Wiseguy Report: NBA 2nd H Top 'Bet-On' Team

By: Teddy Covers / Feb 15, 2016

This team has been extremely successful ATS already; ranked among the Top 5 ATS teams heading into the All Star Break.  And yet the markets appear to be sleeping on the potential for this squad. That offers savvy bettors significant and continued value supporting this consistent moneywinner in the weeks and months to come.

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Vegas Wiseguy Report: Super Bowl Props

By: Teddy Covers / Feb 1, 2016

Props (short for ‘proposition wagers’) have been on the Las Vegas betting boards for thirty years.   It all began when the juggernaut 1985 Chicago Bears were facing the Patriots in Super Bowl 20.  Legendary Vegas oddsmaker Jimmy Vaccaro was a very creative bookmaker at the Mirage (at the time), looking for ways to increase their betting handle

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Vegas Wiseguy Report: Super Bowl 50 First Thoughts

By: Teddy Covers / Jan 25, 2016

When it comes to the pointspread for the Super Bowl, it’s the same story, year after year.   Bettors remember what they last saw and react accordingly.   The ‘lookahead’ lines for the potential Super Bowl matchups after Denver knocked off New England in the first game on Sunday had the Broncos in the +2.5 or +3 range as an underdog – no higher and no lower – in a matchup against either Carolina or Arizona in the Super Bowl.

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Wiseguy Report: Final Four in the NFL

By: Teddy Covers / Jan 18, 2016

March Madness has a lock on the ‘Final Four’ terminology, but we’re down to the final four teams standing in the NFL Playoffs following a wild weekend of football.  In this week’s Wiseguy Report, I’ll take a look at how the Final Four teams still standing this NFL season survived, and what their realistic chances of Super Bowl success are moving forward into the Conference Championship Games this coming weekend.

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Wiseguy Report: Key NFL Injury Updates

By: Teddy Covers / Jan 11, 2016

Serious bettors know one thing about the NFL Playoffs – health matters!  Do the Chiefs win by 30 at Houston if Brian Hoyer has his left tackle, Duane Brown, protecting him?  Do the Steelers execute their game winning drive in the final minute if it was Landry Jones behind center instead of Ben Roethlisberger?  This year's champion is as likely to be determined by which top notch contender is healthy enough to execute their gameplan effectively over the next few weekends as any other factor.

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Final 2015 NFL Power Ratings

By: Teddy Covers / Jan 5, 2016

1)      Arizona Cardinals -6

The Cardinals special teams are a big concern moving into the postseason. They’ve struggled to defend returns all year and kicker Chandler Catanzaro is missing field goals and extra points.

 

2)      Seattle Seahawks -6

The Seahawks have RB Marshawn Lynch back in practice, and there’s a decent chance Seattle will get ‘Beast Mode’ back on the field in Minnesota for their Wild Card game.

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Wiseguy Report: National Championship Preview

By: Teddy Covers / Jan 4, 2016

When we take a look back at the national championship teams over the last decade, we can get a decent idea of the commonalities between those teams and use that to project forward for this year. Texas in 2005, Florida in 2006, LSU in 2007, Florida in 2008, Alabama in 2009, Auburn in 2010, Alabama in 2011 and 2012, Florida State in 2013 and Ohio State in 2014 combine to give us a profile worth noting.

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Week 17 NFL Power Rankings

By: Teddy Covers / Dec 29, 2015

Teddy has a new #1 and a new #32 as we enter the final week of the regular season.  Get his hardcore numbers and key tidbits of info for every team with a click here.....

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Wiseguy Report: Super Bowl Predictions

By: Teddy Covers / Dec 28, 2015

Week 17 of the NFL regular season is here, the playoffs just beyond.  My goal this week is to pick the two Super Bowl teams out of the 14 teams that are still live as I write this (Indy could get eliminated from contention with a Bengals win on Monday Night).  I’m not worried about picking the winner of my hypothetical game, just identifying the two teams that are going to get there.

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Week 16 NFL Power Rankings

By: Teddy Covers / Dec 22, 2015

Last year at this time, Teddy's power ratings had ten teams as potential Super Bowl contenders, lined at least four points higher than the league average.  This year, entering Week 16, Teddy has only five teams power rated that high!  Seperate the contenders from the pretenders right here, right now!

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Wiseguy Report: NFL's Redemption Sunday

By: Teddy Covers / Dec 21, 2015

While the books took a beating and the public enjoyed some extra holiday cash, the NFL playoff picture got much clearer on Sunday, with numerous teams eliminated from the chase.  That being said, it felt a little bit like ‘Redemption Sunday’ for a number of teams and quarterbacks around the NFL in Week 15.  In this week’s Wiseguy Report, I’ll  focusing on a handful of teams and QB’s that gained a measure of confidence or market respect based on their Week 15 result.

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