Teddy's Week 7 NFL Power Ratings

By: Teddy Covers / Oct 19, 2016

The New England Patriots remain Teddy's #1 ranked NFL team, but this week it's not even close, as the Steelers and Packers both lost outright as favorites while Seattle barely escaped with a two point non-covernig win over the Falcons.  How far does Teddy have New England ranked ahead of the field?  And, for the first time all season, Teddy has made a change at the very bottom, with a new #32 ranked team.  Check out the hard numbers and informative commentary! 

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Teddy's Week 6 NFL Power Ratings

By: Teddy Covers / Oct 13, 2016

Five weeks into the season, we're finally starting to see some real seperation between the elite teams and the merely 'good' squads at the top of Teddy's Power Ratings.  Check out the full report, with Teddy's numbers and his commentary on all 32 NFL squads.

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Teddy's Week 5 NFL Power Ratings

By: Teddy Covers / Oct 5, 2016

At the quarter pole of the NFL season, Teddy wasn't shy about making some significant adjustments to his power ratings this week.  While the Browns and 49ers remain at the very bottom of the rankings, Teddy's got a new #1, and it wasn't one of his Top 5 squads last week. Where does Teddy rank the surprise teams, like Philly, Oakland and Atlanta?  What about the disappointments, like Carolina, Arizona and Indy?  Find out here, with this short, entertaining read!

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Teddy's Week 4 NFL Power Ratings

By: Teddy Covers / Sep 28, 2016


1)      Carolina Panthers -5

I’m not thrilled about installing a 1-2 team at the very top of my NFL Power Ratings, but there isn’t a single team ranked below the Panthers who grades out ahead of them.


32)      Cleveland Browns +7

Cursed? Cleveland just lost a game because their kicker got hurt in walk through on Friday and his replacement missed a pair of field goals, including the potential game winner.

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Wiseguy Report: NFL Week 1 Tells Lies

By: Teddy Covers / Sep 12, 2016

Week 1 of the NFL season routinely tells lies.  The goal of any winning handicapper has to be figuring out which teams were lying in their Week 1 performances.

Look no further than last year for some excellent examples.  On opening day of the 2015 NFL season, the Tennessee Titans blew out Tampa Bay 42-14.  Marcus Mariota looked like a superstar, throwing four TD passes in his NFL debut and finishing the game with a perfect passer rating.  The Titans lied to us in Week 1.

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Wiseguy Report: Changing NFL Opinions in August

By: Teddy Covers / Aug 29, 2016

After watching three weeks of NFL Preseason action, most of my initial opinions have been reinforced. That being said, I’ve changed my opinion on a handful of teams, in several cases rather strongly.  In this week’s wiseguy report, I’m going to flesh out what I’ve seen in the Washington Redskins, Miami Dolphins, Chicago Bears and Baltimore Ravens that have me thinking very differently about those squads today compared to my opinion of them a month ago.

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Wiseguy Report: Preseason Betting Advanced Methods

By: Teddy Covers / Aug 22, 2016

Let me start with a bold statement: ‘3’ is not the most important key number when it comes to betting in the NFL reason.  Neither is ‘7’.  No, the most important pointspread number in August is the number ‘1’.  The difference between ‘pick ‘em and + or -1.5 is MUCH bigger now than at any other part of the season.

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Wiseguy Report: Preseason NFL Betting 101

By: Teddy Covers / Aug 15, 2016

Non-bettors always seem shocked when I talk about betting (and beating) the preseason.  ‘How can you bet on exhibition games’?  ‘I don’t even know the guys on the field in the second half.’  ‘Boy, you really must be a degenerate gambler if you’re betting on NFL Preseason.’ That couldn’t be further from the truth.  A sharp bettor’s mantra is fairly simple and nearly universal: ‘Bet when you have an edge.  Pass when you don’t.’  That holds for regular season NFL and for preseason NFL as well.

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Wiseguy Report: Teddy's Early Look at the NFC East

By: Teddy Covers / Jul 25, 2016

Jason Garrett is 7-22 ATS as a home favorite in his first five years as the Cowboys head coach; a consistent track record of failure.  And the Cowboys are likely to be home favorites at least seven times this season – maybe all eight, with a relatively easy opposing slate of foe.  That stands in sharp contrast to last year when they faced one of the tougher schedules in teh NFL.

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Wiseguy Report: Teddy's Early Look @ the NFC North

By: Teddy Covers / Jul 18, 2016

Last week in this space, when I previewed the AFC North, there wasn’t a whole lot that I liked in the division.  If I’m going to put an AFC North win total in my pocket, it’s not going to be on an Over wager!  But that’s most assuredly not the case in the NFC North, where several teams – including a Super Bowl contender – have the feeling of an undervalued commodity at this stage of the offseason.

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Wiseguy Report: Teddy's Early Look at the AFC East

By: Teddy Covers / Jul 18, 2016

It’s’ playoffs or bust’ once again for Buffalo in 2015 in Rex Ryan’s second year on the job.  Rex’s brother, defensive coordinator Rob Ryan, coached one of the worst defenses in NFL history in New Orleans last year.  Now Ryan takes over a D that plummeted from a #4 yardage ranking in 2014 to #19 in 2015 as sacks dropped from 54 to 21.  

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Wiseguy Report:Teddy's Early Look at the AFC North

By: Teddy Covers / Jul 3, 2016

The betting markets are expecting a significant Ravens bounceback this year, lining Baltimore as an 8.5 win team for 2016 (there are a handful of books that have Baltimore lined at 8 wins with juice to the Over).  A quick look at their mainstream stats from last year suggests that they were unlucky as well as unhealthy. Let’s not forget that nine of the Ravens eleven losses last year came by a single score; by eight points or less.

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Wiseguy Report:Teddy's Early Look at the NFC South

By: Teddy Covers / Jun 27, 2016

Personnel wise, the Carolina Panthers have big questions in their secondary.  Charles Tillman is coming off a torn ACL and still unsigned.  Pro bowl cornerback Josh Norman left for a big payday in Washington.  Bene Benwikere is coming off a broken leg.  And Roman Harper is gone at safety too.  For a team that was +20 in turnovers last year, losing that much veteran talent out of the secondary is clearly problematic.  

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Wiseguy Report: Teddy's Early Look @ the AFC South

By: Teddy Covers / Jun 20, 2016

In this week’s Wiseguy Report, I’ll continue my summer series, breaking down one NFL division each week.  This week, it’s time to take an in-depth look at the four teams from the AFC South, with some very early leans regarding their expected improvement or decline in 2016.  

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Wiseguy Report: Teddy's Early Look at the NFC West

By: Teddy Covers / Jun 13, 2016

The Arizona Cardinals went 13-3 SU, 9-7 ATS and 9-7 to the Over last year.  They finished +9 in turnovers; good for fourth best in the NFL.  Their mainstream stats were outstanding, finishing with the #1 offense and the #5 defense based on yardage figures.  This year, Bruce Arians squad is lined as a 9.5 win team with heavy juice to the Over. Using the standard formula of 50 cents extra juice equating to a half a win in the marketplace, Arizona is effectively lined as a 10 win team in 2016.

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Wiseguy Report: Teddy's Early Look at the AFC West

By: Teddy Covers / Jun 6, 2016

The calendar has turned to June and Vegas is sweltering hot.  That can only mean one thing for NFL bettors – the offseason marketplace starts to heat up with the weather.  The season win total markets and the odds to win each division have seen some movement.  That means it’s time to get to work (if you haven’t done so already) on a thorough offseason analysis of each team. 

The Denver Broncos went 12-4 SU, 8-8 ATS and 10-6 to the Under last year; lined Over/Under 9.5 wins for 2016. 

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Wiseguy Report: Very Early College Football $$

By: Teddy Covers / May 23, 2016

The Golden Nugget here in Las Vegas was the first book to post a bevy of season win totals in college football, numbers that hit the board late last week.  The Nugget posted win total numbers for 24 teams.  Six of those 24 teams saw some early action, including two significant moves: Ohio State Over 8.5 Wins (bet up to 9) and Tennessee Under 10 wins (now -155 to the Under).  

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Wiseguy Report: Wrong Opinions in the NBA Playoffs

By: Teddy Covers / May 16, 2016

Successful sportsbettors are not politicians.   Politicians take heat every time they change their opinion – ‘flip-floppers’.  A politician who is pro-choice on abortion, for example, will take enormous criticism from both sides, and will probably lose his or her next election if he or she switches to a ‘pro-life’ stance.  Sportsbettors, like politicians, are inevitably going to have some wrong opinions – about teams, about players, about coaches

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Wiseguy Report: True 2016 NFL Strength of Schedule

By: Teddy Covers / May 9, 2016

Once last year’s numbers are compiled and filed, it’s time to do the same thing for the upcoming campaign – creating more accurate numbers than you can commonly find.  This week, I’ll focus on the 2016 NFL strength of schedule as they relate to season win totals.  Once again, my goal is to differentiate between the mainstream numbers and the meaningful ones.

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Wiseguy Report: How Pros Attack the NFL in May

By: Teddy Covers / May 2, 2016

The aggregate numbers for last year’s strength of schedule -- the starting point for any analysis of the upcoming 2016 campaign -- can be extremely misleading.  A team’s final win-loss record tells us nothing about how good they actually were at the time the game was played.  There were some enormous in-season power rating shifts last year, just as there are every year.  Here are some key examples:

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Wiseguy Report: The Secret Truth About NFL QB's

By: Teddy Covers / Apr 25, 2016

Over the last ten years, there have been a grand total of three legit superstar quarterbacks to come out of college: Andrew Luck (a #1 overall pick), Cam Newton (a #1 overall pick) and Russell Wilson (the only QB under the age of 30 with a Super Bowl ring).  So basically, if you didn’t draft #1, you’ve had one chance in ten years to get an elite QB.  Hard to find that kind of needle in a haystack, isn’t it!

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Wiseguy Report: NBA Most Undervalued Playoff Teams

By: Teddy Covers / Apr 18, 2016

And that leaves two teams that I think are legitimate title contenders sitting as relative afterthoughts in the national media spotlight and in the betting markets.  The Oklahoma City Thunder were priced in the 15-1 range to win the NBA Title entering the playoffs.  The Los Angeles Clippers were even higher, priced in the 30:1 range.  

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Wiseguy Report: MLB After Week 1

By: Teddy Covers / Apr 11, 2016

Maybe the appropriate title for this week’s Wiseguy Report is ‘”What Lineups Do the Squares Love and Hate Already After One Week.”  Because hitting is one area of the MLB betting marketplace that the public bettors seem to grasp better than the advanced metric lovers.  One week into the campaign there are plenty of reasonable assertions about these MLB lineups that have not been fully factored into the betting market equation yet. 

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Wiseguy Report: How To Beat Baseball in 2016

By: Teddy Covers / Apr 3, 2016

Last year, the top eight pitchers in strikeouts per nine innings were Chris Sale, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Chris Archer, Carlos Carrasco, Corey Kluber, Francisco Liriano and Tyson Ross.  Only one of those eight aces – Liriano – produced a profit for his supporters.  If you bet on the eight best pitchers in baseball in this key advanced metric stat, you lost more than -39 units of profit.  This example CLEARLY shows that K/9 rates are overvalued in the modern baseball markets.

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Wiseguy Report: MLB Markets' Amazing Evolution

By: Teddy Covers / Mar 28, 2016

The nature of the sportsbetting marketplace is relatively simple to understand.  Bettors find an edge that they can profitably exploit; soon followed by bookmakers adjusting to reflect the popularity of the prevailing thought processes behind those winning wagers.  Over time, the marketplace evolves.  The factors that worked to produce profitable results for bettors get ‘priced into the market’ and no longer offer that same level of value.

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