Wiseguy Report: What We Learned from Week 2

By: Teddy Covers / Aug 24, 2015

In the NFL Preseason, when coaches almost never play for a late game tie to force overtime, there’s an enormous difference between laying -1 and -2.5.  Games decided by final margins or 1 or 2 points are relatively rare once September rolls around.  In August, they are commonplace. 

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Wiseguy Report: NFL Weekend Recap

By: Teddy Covers / Aug 17, 2015

Week 1 of the NFL Preseason is behind us.  The NFL season win totals futures markets are already reacting to what we’ve seen, showing some modest movement off the successes and failures of the first and second string units.  In this week’s Wiseguy Report, I’ll take a quick tour around the NFL, specifically focusing on any misleading stats or under-the radar performances from the 16 games that we just saw.

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Vegas Wiseguy Report: More NFL SOS

By: Teddy Covers / Aug 10, 2015

Last week in this space, I looked back at last year’s final NFL standings and discussed the impact of strength of schedule models on those results.  We’re done with last year now. This week, I’ll focus on the 2015 NFL strength of schedule as they relate to season win totals.  Once again, my goal is to differentiate between the mainstream numbers and the meaningful ones.

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Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Strength of Schedule

By: Teddy Covers / Aug 9, 2015

When looking at the the NFL futures market, Super Bowl odds and odds to win divisions or conferences only give bettors one choice – betting ON a particular team.  Then that team has to beat out all of their competition to win the division/conference/Super Bowl for you to cash, offering the potential for big payday ‘longshot’ returns, but cashing a low percentage of the wagers that are made. NFL Season Win totals, on the other hand, offer bettors the opportunity to bet AGAINST teams

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Vegas Wiseguy Report: 2014 NFL SOS Projections

By: Teddy Covers / Jul 21, 2014

The ‘wiseguy’ or ‘advanced metric’ methodology is not based on last year’s, win-loss records.  Rather, they’re based on the projected strength and weaknesses of each team in 2014, based on THIS YEAR’s current Over/Under win totals as set by the betting marketplace. The current juice (vig) is factored into the equation as well, using the standard wiseguy formula of 50 cents of juice equating to approximately half of a win.  

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Vegas Wiseguy Report: Accurate NFL SOS Numbers

By: Teddy Covers / Jul 14, 2014

My win total handicapping process begins with creating accurate strength of schedule (SOS) numbers for both last year and the upcoming season.  The broader betting markets focus on strength of schedule using flawed analysis.  I’ll focus on those differences here.

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Vegas Wiseguy Report: Projected AFC Morphers

By: Teddy Covers / Jun 23, 2014

The markets are telling us to expect ‘more of the same’ from 12 of the 16 AFC teams.  What makes these four squads different? My goal here is to focus on why these particular teams are expected to improve or decline significantly compared to last year.  I’ll do that by looking at how the broader market conditions affect the numbers.  What do the markets fixate upon?  What do they largely ignore?  Read on to find out.  

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Vegas Wiseguy Report: 1st College Football Spreads

By: Teddy Covers / Jun 16, 2014

This past Friday, we saw another clear sign that football is just around the corner, as the Golden Nugget released their lines on 200 ‘College Football Games of the Year’.   These GOY pointspreads were posted on about 10-15 high profile marquee games a week, beginning with the Texas A&M – South Carolina and Boise St – Ole Miss showdowns on Thursday, August 28th

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Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Season Wins Outliers

By: Teddy Covers / Jun 9, 2014

The markets are telling us to expect ‘more of the same’ from 21 of the 32 teams in the league. I’m going to focus on those eleven teams that are expected to morph positively or negatively from last year.  The goal of this discussion is to focus on why these particular teams are expected to improve or decline significantly compared to last year.  

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Vegas Wiseguy Report: 2014 First NFC Thoughts

By: Teddy Covers / Jun 2, 2014

Last week, I focused on the 16 teams from the AFC.  In this week’s Vegas Wiseguy Report, I’ll pass along a tidbit or two from each of the 16 NFC teams in regards to last year.  My focus is on things that are NOT likely to repeat the same way in 2014.  

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Vegas Wiseguy Report: First 2014 NFL Thoughts

By: Teddy Covers / May 26, 2014

Every team’s power rating is set, in large part, based on where they finished the previous campaign.  Obviously, adjustments are made for injuries, luck, offseason improvements or declines, coaching changes and the like, but those base power rating numbers factor in what happened in 2013 very heavily. In this week’s Vegas Wiseguy Report, I’ll pass along a tidbit or two from each of the 16 AFC teams in regards to last year. My focus is on things that are NOT likely to repeat the same way in 2014.

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Vegas Wiseguy Report: The NBA Final Four

By: Teddy Covers / May 19, 2014

Only four teams remain standing in the NBA Playoffs; one of whom will bring home the title less than a month from now.  For all the drama of the first two rounds, it’s an all-chalk Final Four, with the top two seeds from each conference battling for supremacy.  This week, I’ll take a closer look at the two series.  The goal, as always, is to unearth hidden nuggets pointing towards future pointspread success while assessing pace and totals as well.

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Vegas Wiseguy Report: Meaningless NFL Draft Hype

By: Teddy Covers / May 12, 2014

When the regular season starts, many books won’t post a line when a QB has a hangnail (or some other relatively minor injury), waiting until late in the week before hanging a pointspread.  And yet sportsbooks had no issues whatsoever about posting NFL lines for games that won’t be played until seven months from now with rosters that aren’t set and with a draft that hadn’t happened yet.  

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Vegas Wiseguy Report: NBA Playoffs Round 2 Preview

By: Teddy Covers / May 5, 2014

All four series certainly look competitive on paper, although top seeds Miami and San Antonio are both significant favorites to knock off Brooklyn and Portland respectively.  The series prices for Washington – Indiana and LA Clippers – Oklahoma City are certainly indicative of tight battles to come.  In this week’s Vegas Wiseguy Report I’ll examine each series, looking for matchup edges that could offer ATS value as the series progress.

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Vegas Wiseguy Report: NBA Playoffs = Dogs & Over

By: Teddy Covers / Apr 28, 2014

The current numbers are quite striking.  Pointspread favorites are a woeful 7-21-2 ATS through the first 30 playoff games.  In fact the favored team is just 14-16 SU – underdog moneyline bettors have been feasting over the first nine days of playoff action.  What gives?  Why have the dogs covered at a 75% clip through the first 30 Playoff games?   

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Vegas Wiseguy Report: NBA Playoff Notes & Quotes

By: Teddy Covers / Apr 21, 2014

There were eight opening round NBA Playoff Series that started this past weekend.  The lower seeded road teams – all underdogs in Game 1 – went 6-2 ATS, including five outright upset winners.  This is just the start of a two month NBA Playoff marathon, and these Game 1’s may not be indicative of how these opening round series are likely to play out.  Here are some key ‘Notes and Quotes’ for each series following those Game 1’s.

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Vegas Wiseguy Report: Early Season MLB Totals

By: Teddy Covers / Apr 14, 2014

We’re two weeks into the marathon baseball season, but there hasn’t been a lot that stands out thusfar in the standings.  When it comes to early season MLB totals trends, unlike the sides, there’s plenty that stands out.  Here’s a brief list:

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Vegas Wiseguy Report: Curious Case of the Pacers

By: Teddy Covers / Apr 7, 2014

The Indiana Pacers have been a remarkable pointspread story this year, worthy of a ‘Wiseguy Report’ to examine in detail what has happened and why.  To be thorough, this story starts last year when the Pacers flexed their collective muscles, developing into a title contender for the first time in a decade.   

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Vegas Wiseguy Report: Western Conf NBA 'Morphers'

By: Teddy Covers / Mar 31, 2014

I’m going to focus on the NBA in this week’s Wiseguy Report, picking up right where I left off last week, when I broke down a handful of Eastern Conference ‘morphers’.  It’s worth noting that since I wrote that article, blindly supporting the three ‘bet-on’ teams that I mentioned (Cleveland, Philadelphia and Brooklyn) while fading my one ‘bet-against’ squad (Indiana) has produced a 10-5 ATS result. 

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Vegas Wiseguy Report: Late Season NBA Morphers

By: Teddy Covers / Mar 24, 2014

There are still 3 ½ weeks left in the regular season.  Most squads have between 12 and 14 games remaining.  And very quietly, underneath the radar, we’ve seen a handful of late season ‘morphers’; teams playing well above or well below their full season power rating numbers.  Those are the teams I’m looking to focus on in this week’s Vegas Wiseguy Report, particularly in the Eastern Conference

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Vegas Wiseguy Report: Big Dance First Thoughts

By: Teddy Covers / Mar 17, 2014

We’ve got brackets to break down!  I’ll offer a quick take on the 28 matchups already set for Thursday and Friday.  

The A-10 got a handful of mediocre teams like Dayton into the NCAA Tournament mix, but the Flyers will certainly be looking forward to a matchup against an Ohio State team that has repeatedly avoided them in non-conference play.  The Buckeyes enter the tourney on an 0-6 ATS run; just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 tries as chalk. 

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Vegas Wiseguy Report: NCAA Conference Tournaments

By: Teddy Covers / Mar 10, 2014

For serious college basketball bettors, there’s absolutely no comparison between this week and next week.  This week, we’ve got dozens of ‘Little Dances’, the conference tournaments that are a sports bettors dream.  Next week, for the Big Dance, it’s still a betting bonanza, but not quite as good.  Here are my Top 6 reasons why.

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Who Has What It Takes To Win It All? (Part 2)

By: Teddy Covers / Mar 3, 2014

In Part 1 of this article last week, I took a basic look at the profile of the past 16 NCAA champions.  From that profile, I was able to make a ‘short list’ of potential champs in 2014, consisting of the following 18 teams: Cincinnati, Louisville, Virginia, Syracuse, Duke, North Carolina, Kansas, Iowa St, Creighton, Villanova, Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Iowa, Arizona, UCLA, Florida and Kentucky.

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Who Has What It Takes to Win the Big Dance?

By: Teddy Covers / Feb 24, 2014

History shows us many things about what it takes to be a champion.  I write this article every year, and every year except for one, I have been able to identify the eventual NCAA national champion among my elite level teams. Last year was no exception.  Here’s what I wrote about Louisville in my ‘Who Has What It Takes’ article from 2013:

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Vegas Wiseguy Report: NCAA Hoops ATS Disasters

By: Teddy Covers / Feb 10, 2014

This week, I’m examining the very worst pointspread teams in all of college basketball.  Why are they so bad against the spread?  Will they continue to be money losers as February rolls into March? And what statistical profile do these teams have in common that will help us identify them as early as possible next year?  Let’s take a look!

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