Vegas Wiseguy Report: Early Season MLB Totals

By: Teddy Covers / Apr 14, 2014

We’re two weeks into the marathon baseball season, but there hasn’t been a lot that stands out thusfar in the standings.  When it comes to early season MLB totals trends, unlike the sides, there’s plenty that stands out.  Here’s a brief list:

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Vegas Wiseguy Report: Curious Case of the Pacers

By: Teddy Covers / Apr 7, 2014

The Indiana Pacers have been a remarkable pointspread story this year, worthy of a ‘Wiseguy Report’ to examine in detail what has happened and why.  To be thorough, this story starts last year when the Pacers flexed their collective muscles, developing into a title contender for the first time in a decade.   

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Vegas Wiseguy Report: Western Conf NBA 'Morphers'

By: Teddy Covers / Mar 31, 2014

I’m going to focus on the NBA in this week’s Wiseguy Report, picking up right where I left off last week, when I broke down a handful of Eastern Conference ‘morphers’.  It’s worth noting that since I wrote that article, blindly supporting the three ‘bet-on’ teams that I mentioned (Cleveland, Philadelphia and Brooklyn) while fading my one ‘bet-against’ squad (Indiana) has produced a 10-5 ATS result. 

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Vegas Wiseguy Report: Late Season NBA Morphers

By: Teddy Covers / Mar 24, 2014

There are still 3 ½ weeks left in the regular season.  Most squads have between 12 and 14 games remaining.  And very quietly, underneath the radar, we’ve seen a handful of late season ‘morphers’; teams playing well above or well below their full season power rating numbers.  Those are the teams I’m looking to focus on in this week’s Vegas Wiseguy Report, particularly in the Eastern Conference

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Vegas Wiseguy Report: Big Dance First Thoughts

By: Teddy Covers / Mar 17, 2014

We’ve got brackets to break down!  I’ll offer a quick take on the 28 matchups already set for Thursday and Friday.  

The A-10 got a handful of mediocre teams like Dayton into the NCAA Tournament mix, but the Flyers will certainly be looking forward to a matchup against an Ohio State team that has repeatedly avoided them in non-conference play.  The Buckeyes enter the tourney on an 0-6 ATS run; just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 tries as chalk. 

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Vegas Wiseguy Report: NCAA Conference Tournaments

By: Teddy Covers / Mar 10, 2014

For serious college basketball bettors, there’s absolutely no comparison between this week and next week.  This week, we’ve got dozens of ‘Little Dances’, the conference tournaments that are a sports bettors dream.  Next week, for the Big Dance, it’s still a betting bonanza, but not quite as good.  Here are my Top 6 reasons why.

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Who Has What It Takes To Win It All? (Part 2)

By: Teddy Covers / Mar 3, 2014

In Part 1 of this article last week, I took a basic look at the profile of the past 16 NCAA champions.  From that profile, I was able to make a ‘short list’ of potential champs in 2014, consisting of the following 18 teams: Cincinnati, Louisville, Virginia, Syracuse, Duke, North Carolina, Kansas, Iowa St, Creighton, Villanova, Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Iowa, Arizona, UCLA, Florida and Kentucky.

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Who Has What It Takes to Win the Big Dance?

By: Teddy Covers / Feb 24, 2014

History shows us many things about what it takes to be a champion.  I write this article every year, and every year except for one, I have been able to identify the eventual NCAA national champion among my elite level teams. Last year was no exception.  Here’s what I wrote about Louisville in my ‘Who Has What It Takes’ article from 2013:

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Vegas Wiseguy Report: NCAA Hoops ATS Disasters

By: Teddy Covers / Feb 10, 2014

This week, I’m examining the very worst pointspread teams in all of college basketball.  Why are they so bad against the spread?  Will they continue to be money losers as February rolls into March? And what statistical profile do these teams have in common that will help us identify them as early as possible next year?  Let’s take a look!

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Vegas Wiseguy Report: NCAA Hoops ATS Juggernauts

By: Teddy Covers / Feb 3, 2014

I’m going take a look at the four very best ‘regular board’ pointspread teams in the country in this week’s column.   Elite level teams aren’t necessarily pointspread winners, and bottom feeders can cash ticket after ticket if the betting markets set numbers that allow them to hang within the number as big underdogs.  And the very best pointspread teams tend to be under-the-radar type squads, like the single best ATS team in college hoops thusfar in the 2013-14 campaign.

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Vegas Wiseguy Report: Super Bowl Sharp $$

By: Teddy Covers / Jan 27, 2014

It’s Super Bowl time again; the moral equivalent of Christmas Day for sportsbettors.  Yet many of the professional full time bettors that I know are rather disappointed with the proposition betting opportunities this year – there’s simply not much ‘low hanging fruit’.  

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Vegas Wiseguy Report: Super Bowl Memory Lane

By: Teddy Covers / Jan 20, 2014

On the one hand, the Super Bowl is ‘just another game’ for a professional bettor.  On the other hand, the Super Bowl has two major differences.  First and foremost are the prop bets; quite literally hundreds of wagering opportunities. The other biggest difference between Super Bowls and ‘other games’?  Simple – the Super Bowls stand out in our memories; every one of them.  

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Vegas Wiseguy Report: NBA Money Burners

By: Teddy Covers / Jan 13, 2014

Last week, I took an in-depth look at five of the biggest moneymakers in the NBA through the first half of the season.  This week I’m going to focus on the teams at the other end of the spectrum – bottom feeders and disappointments.  I’ll break down the three biggest money-losers of the season thusfar.  And I’ll take a look at a ‘morpher’; a team playing significantly worse than current market projections.

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Vegas Wiseguy Report: NBA Moneymakers

By: Teddy Covers / Jan 6, 2014

This week I’m going to focus on the good NBA teams; the moneymakers!  I’ll break down some of the best money earners in NBA thusfar and assess their profit making potential moving forward.  And I’ll take a look at a pair of ‘morphers’; teams that are playing significantly better than current market projections.

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Vegas Wiseguy Report: Outdated Bowl Strategies

By: Teddy Covers / Dec 30, 2013

As I write this very early on Monday morning, there have been 15 bowl games already played, with 20 more to follow.  Even from this very short sample size, you can see already that these three ‘tried and true’ strategies from years past have bitten the dust – exactly what happened last year, and the year before that!  

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Vegas Wiseguy Report: Flawed Super Bowl Contenders

By: Teddy Covers / Dec 23, 2013

The real money to be made betting the NFL postseason is fading the supposedly ‘elite’ teams that are, in fact, vulnerable.  And boy, this year looks like the poster child for that strategy, because each and every supposedly ‘elite’ team as I write this following Week 16 is flawed in at least one or two areas.

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Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL ATS Plays of the Year

By: Teddy Covers / Dec 16, 2013

In my world, there’s nothing better than a ‘right side’ winner -- no drama, no sweating; an easy ‘rocking chair’ cover.  Of course, cashing nothing but ‘right side’ winners is MUCH easier said than done.   In the real world, there are so many games that come down to a single key late play that determines the SU and/or ATS winner.

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Vegas Wiseguy Report: Bowl Season Primer

By: Teddy Covers / Dec 9, 2013

Motivation is the key factor for any bowl game.  Overall talent and team speed don’t mean a thing when the players don’t give a hoot about being there.  

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Vegas Wiseguy Report: Bottom Feeders in December

By: Teddy Covers / Dec 2, 2013

Bottom feeders in December are a mixed breed.  Some squads tank; done with their season.  Other bottom feeders play their best ball down the stretch, building momentum for next year. There's money to be made if we can identify ‘live’ bottom feeders before the betting markets do!  That’s my goal for this week’s article.  I’ll break down each of the nine teams currently at 4-8 or worse to see which squads are still fighting and which have already packed it in. 

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Vegas Wiseguy Report: AFC Contenders vs Pretenders

By: Teddy Covers / Nov 25, 2013

I had a spirited debate with a fairly well known professional bettor on Sunday Night after the games were finished. We were both having the same problem; trying to figure out somebody – anybody – in the AFC worthy of support down the stretch as a Super Bowl contender. Frankly, there aren’t a whole lot of choices, and our debate primarily consisted of finding fatal flaws in whatever team the other guy brought up.

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Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFC Contenders vs Pretenders

By: Teddy Covers / Nov 18, 2013

It’s time to focus on the big boys – teams with playoff aspirations.  Who can get hot down the stretch and make us some money winning games and covering pointspreads?  Which squads are legitimate Super Bowl contenders; which are pretenders?  Let’s take look through the NFC this week

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Vegas Wiseguy Report: AFC Week 10

By: Teddy Covers / Nov 11, 2013

Every team gets a mulligan or two throughout the course of a 16 game season.  After facing Seattle, San Diego on Monday Night Football, Denver with Peyton Manning's return to Indy, a huge Sunday Night TV game against division rival Houston with another divisional game on tap for Thursday Night, yes, this was a real flat spot for the Colts. 

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Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFC Week 9

By: Teddy Covers / Nov 4, 2013

The Rams in this game made me want to quote Charles Dickens. “It was the best of times; it was the worst of times.”  There were so many positives for Jeff Fisher’s squad here.  The Rams ran the football effectively all afternoon for the second straight week against a solid stop unit, with Zac Stacy bulling his way to another 100+ yard game on the ground.  The much maligned offensive line blew open holes for Stacy, and gave Kellen Clemens solid protection.  

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Vegas Wiseguy Report: AFC Week 8

By: Teddy Covers / Oct 28, 2013

Only four QB’s rank among my true ‘elite’ level NFL quarterbacks: Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers.  My second tier is much larger: Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan, Colin Kaepernick, Russell Wilson, Tony Romo, Matthew Stafford, Joe Flacco, Cam Newton, Philip Rivers and Jay Cutler.  If Andy Dalton can put himself into that second tier, the Bengals are legit Super Bowl contenders.

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Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFC Week 7

By: Teddy Covers / Oct 21, 2013

Matt Ryan looked great despite playing without his top two receivers.  Harry Douglas is about to become a star in this offense.  The former slot receiver has been forced into the #1 WR role, and he enjoyed a huge afternoon.  But Atlanta’s fundamental flaw on offense hasn’t changed – they still can’t run the football one iota, failing to get a single first down twice on their three ‘let’s burn some clock’ drives in the second half.

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